1. Disinformation campaign alleging that Ukraine violates the ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure

Center forecasts that the kremlin will continue an information campaign accusing Ukraine of failing to comply with the agreements reached in Saudi Arabia. New unsubstantiated accusations against Ukraine regarding strikes on russia’s energy infrastructure are expected to emerge, while enemy propaganda resources will disseminate narratives claiming that Ukraine is allegedly “incapable of honoring agreements” and is attempting to mislead the United States and President Donald Trump.

In addition, the spread of the narrative that “neo-nazi units of the UAF are not controlled by Ukraine’s political leadership and continue shelling despite agreements” is expected to intensify. russia may also carry out provocative attacks and then blame Ukraine.

In reality, it is russia that has not complied with the ceasefire on energy infrastructure. Claims by kremlin representatives about alleged Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities in russia’s kursk and bryansk regions were previously refuted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The main goal of russia’s disinformation campaign will be to shift responsibility onto Ukraine for non-compliance with the ceasefire, mislead Ukraine’s international partners, and justify further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure amid kremlin’s statements about its alleged willingness to negotiate peace.

2. Discrediting initiatives within the “Coalition of the willing”

Following the summit organized by Emmanuel Macron President of France, russia is expected to step up information campaigns to discredit the so-called “Coalition of the willing” — a group of countries that have expressed readiness to provide Ukraine with security guarantees, including peacekeeping contingent .

In particular, russia may intensify the narrative that deploying troops to Ukraine would escalate the conflict and result in catastrophic consequences for Europe. russian propaganda will likely also try to fuel anti-Ukrainian, anti-war, or anti-European sentiment in EU countries, promoting arguments against peacekeeping deployments.

Moreover, russia will attempt to create the impression that discussions within the “Coalition of the willing” reflect serious divisions among European countries. It may also launch information campaigns to scare European audiences with the idea that EU citizens might be drawn into the fighting in Ukraine or by emphasizing the “weakness” of European armies.

The kremlin will aim to intimidate European societies with the threat of direct conflict with russia, undermine support for Ukraine, provoke division, and create political and public pressure within the EU amid key international discussions.

3. Discrediting the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein Format.

russian propaganda is expected to intensify its campaign to discredit the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format, whose next meeting is scheduled for April 11 in Brussels, as well as Ukraine’s military aid efforts more broadly.

Given that the UK will chair the Ramstein meeting and its new government is demonstrating a strong stance in supporting Ukraine, russian propaganda will likely amplify anti-British narratives — e.g. that London is “dragging Europe into a confrontation with russia” or that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is “dragging the country into a war with russia.” Pro-russian politicians and experts may also become more active in Western media.

4. Continued discreditation campaign regarding events in the kursk region

Center forecasts that russia will continue its disinformation campaign against Ukraine related to events in the kursk region. The dissemination of fake news and manipulations about “atrocities committed by the UAF” will remain a key strategy in this campaign.

russia may publish staged videos or propaganda productions featuring fake victims “testifying” about the brutality of Ukrainian soldiers.

kremlin propaganda systematically employs emotionally charged stories designed to elicit sympathy for allegedly victimized “russian citizens” and “refugees” supposedly targeted by the Ukrainian military — even though these videos offer no proof.

Fake claims may also emerge accusing Ukraine of using prohibited weapons. These narratives aim to portray Ukraine as a “rogue” force that “threatens” all of Europe. russia may also engage its diplomatic corps in this disinformation effort, appealing to the UN or other international bodies to fabricate the impression that Ukraine is violating international law in operations in the kursk region.

To boost morale among domestic audiences, russia will promote narratives about the “successes” of its military in the kursk region — for instance, the ongoing glorification of an operation where russian troops allegedly infiltrated the city of sudzha via a gas pipeline, even though the effectiveness of the operation is questionable.

5. Intensified propaganda in temporarily occupied territories ahead of the 80th anniversary of victory over nazism

Ahead of the 80th anniversary of the victory over nazism, russia will continue to ramp up propaganda activities in the temporarily occupied territories, promoting the image of a “unified front” against nazism, with occupation authorities portrayed as the modern-day continuation of this legacy.

Occupiers will initiate the creation of murals, monuments, and other symbols glorifying the ussr’s victory. These initiatives will involve official support as well as local administrations, businesses, and public organizations. Propaganda events involving children and youth are also expected to increase in order to militarize and indoctrinate the younger generation.

6. Intensified disinformation campaigns in Germany amid formation of new government

As negotiations continue between conservatives (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany over a new coalition, russia may attempt to destabilize the situation and sway public opinion on continued military and political support for Ukraine. russia may increase the number of public demonstrations — including by mobilizing its diaspora — with calls for the German government to end its support for Ukraine.

russia is also likely to escalate social media operations — using bots and fake accounts to incite protests, spread false stories about coalition agreements, or push specific political messages.

7. Destabilizing the internal political situation in the Republic of Moldova

Amid Moldova’s pro-European policy, russia will likely try to provoke internal conflict. This is reflected in russian propaganda’s focus on the March 26 airport detention of Evghenia Guțul, the pro-russian leader of Gagauzia. Notably, Guțul appealed to v. putin and R. Erdoğa for help, and a small protest in Chișinău — widely covered by russian media — took place in her support.

ru-propaganda may use this to accuse Moldovan President Maia Sandu of dictatorship and suppressing national minorities and russian-speaking communities (Gagauzians predominantly speak russian).

Further accusations may focus on Moldova’s alleged support for fascism, citing a recently published 12th-grade Romanian history textbook.

With parliamentary elections in Moldova scheduled for the second half of 2025, russian propaganda will likely exploit narratives about “fascist support,” “European handlers,” “democracy suppression,” and “russian-speaking population oppression” to divide Moldovan society — especially in pro-russian regions like Gagauzia and Transnistria.

8. Information support for ratifying the strategic partnership agreement with Iran

As russia prepares to ratify its strategic partnership treaty with Iran, russian media outlets and officials are expected to provide positive coverage of the agreement, pushing narratives about mutual benefits.

russian Arabic-language accounts on platforms such as X are also expected to promote the treaty — highlighting that the strategic partnership supports global stability and resists Western influence in the Middle East.

9. Support for Yemen’s “Ansar Allah” group amid U.S. airstrikes

Given previous support from russian Arabic-language X accounts for Yemen’s “Ansar Allah” group, these accounts may intensify their support amid ongoing U.S. airstrikes on Yemen.

Narratives will likely portray the group as defenders of Yemen, Palestine, and the Muslim ummah as a whole. Meanwhile, russian outlets are expected to avoid direct criticism of the U.S., instead amplifying statements from the group’s representatives.