Will the PMC wagner “purge” save putin’s power
No matter how much the kremlin leader’s entourage, putin himself, and his propaganda resources claim that the rating of support for the government and his “smo” has only increased since the prigozhin’s revolt, this is not the case.
The largest and most dangerous armed rebellion during putin’s rule caused serious concern among citizens for the future of the country. Anonymous telephone surveys of respondents from all regions of russia by the independent sociological group Russian Field show that 72% of people would support putin’s hypothetical decision to sign a peace agreement and end the war, 12% believe that russia should withdraw its troops from Ukraine, and 35% would cancel the invasion altogether if they could go back in time and do so. At the peak of the events near moscow, the share of respondents who believe that russia is going in the right direction fell from 67% in May to 53%. That is, the instinct of self-preservation keeps russians from being eager to take part in russia’s war against Ukraine and die for president putin.
The results of the “Levada Center” survey are even more alarming for the authorities. While two days before the riot, 58% of respondents supported prigozhin, during the active phase of the events the figure dropped to 31%, and after the march on moscow, it was 29%. So, although the rating of the PMC leader has objectively fallen, his activities after the riot are approved by about a third of russians, and 9% still see him as their future president. The main slogan of the wagnerites’ march was “restoration of justice” due to distrust of the kremlin government. Citizens’ attitudes toward defense minister s.shoigu have also deteriorated, with his approval rating falling from 60% to 48% after the events of June 23-24. This indicates that russians are dissatisfied with the fact that putin has kept shoigu in office despite the deaths of military personnel trying to contain the wagnerites.
But the main concern is that the political, military, and business elites have questioned whether putin has regained control of the situation in the country after the coup. Officials and businessmen fear that putin will seek to reassert his power, which will lead to increased repression in the country. And the “purges” that have begun in the army and local administrations only confirm their fears. In fact, for many in russia’s economic and business elite, the prigozhin mutiny was a bigger shock than the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year. It has reinforced doubts about putin’s unquestioning support in the upcoming presidential election and the impossibility of a forceful scenario for a change of power in russia.
Naturally, putin’s clan is trying to rectify the situation and destroy all references to the past achievements of the PMC “wagner” and its founder, prigozhin. For almost a week now, the Patriot media holding, known as prigozhin’s troll factory, has been out of business, the main information resource of the “cook” that advertised the activities of the PMC “wagner” in russia and around the world. Special services searched the holding’s building and seized servers. Also, after the start of the rebellion, the website of the Federal News Agency, a key media outlet of the troll factory, was blocked in russia.
The attitude toward the wagnerites on the Ukrainian front has also changed radically. Western intelligence estimates that no more than a thousand wagnerites have left for Belarus, while the rest are being forced to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. On June 25, shoigu ordered the physical elimination of wagnerites in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Separate assault units of “suicide bombers” are being created from them and sent to recapture the positions lost by the russians. Even if the assaults are successful, these positions are “covered” by russian artillery. According to preliminary data, in just two days, the losses from this “approach” exceeded 50 people.
The purge of domestic support for wagner is accompanied by the kremlin’s intentions to take control of the “prigozhin empire” in Africa and the Middle East. Of course, russia cannot give up such a lever of influence in Africa as the PMC “wagner”. Therefore, the only way out for the kremlin is to rebrand the company with the appointment of new leaders. Representatives of the russian foreign ministry have already warned African leaders that the PMC “wagner” will continue its activities, but under new leadership. And one of the deputy foreign ministers of russia personally informed Syrian President B. Assad that PMC units will no longer operate independently. Moreover, according to available information, the russian military police detained the head of the PMC “wagner” branch in al-Suwayda, in the south of Syria, and three high-ranking PMC commanders at the Hmeimim air base.
Whether the leader of the PMC “wagner” will lose final control over his army of militants or whether the struggle for power will only move to a new level remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the kremlin regime has received a severe stab in the back, which has become the first practical stage of dismantling putin’s system.
