On the eve of the anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a massive information campaign was launched in russian propaganda resources to prove to russians the narrative that everything is supposedly going according to plan and that the russian military is “protecting” the country from the threat from the West and NATO. In particular, on February 21, putin plans to address the federal assembly of the russian federation, and in moscow, the anniversary of the bloody war will be celebrated with “holiday concerts.”

☝️ On September 21, 2022, putin announced a partial mobilization in russia. On November 1, it was announced that it was over, but there was no new decree from putin about it. Recently, russia admitted that the decree on mobilization continues to apply, and the mobilization measures there have not stopped until now.

What is this informational activity connected with, because it is obvious that the russian army cannot boast of significant victories at the front?

According to a representative of Ukrainian intelligence, russian propaganda is intensifying with the probable aim of preparing russians for the announcement of a new mobilization. Due to the lack of manpower, putin may call up to 500,000 troops in addition to the 300,000 that were mobilized in October 2022. Therefore, a number of public statements, concerts and other “celebratory” events are aimed at distracting the population of the russian federation from economic problems and thousands of dead in Ukraine, and convincing them to be ready to continue to give their lives in the war, the true goals of which no one has explained to them.

According to forecasts of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the second wave of mobilization in russia may begin at the end of February. Preparatory measures are already underway, in particular, in the occupied Crimea, where all state and private institutions have been obliged to submit lists of persons for reservation to the military commissariats. At the tomsk state pedagogical university, they began to recruit employees and students to work at mobilization notification stations. And at the end of January, the ministry of education of the russian federation sent out a message that all educational institutions must be constantly ready for mobilization. On February 15, it became known that russian students are being forced to sign consent to early conscription. This will allow military commissars to call up young men already in April, and not in the summer, when the training ends. In the infospace, “initiatives” about sending the unemployed to the army are spreading. On February 14, the “proposal” to legalize such an unusual way of combating unemployment was put forward by the mayor of kuznetsk s.zlatogorsky.

But is russia ready for another wave of mobilization?

The analysis of the hostilities of the last months shows that the significant losses of the occupiers in the Vugledarsk direction are not least due to the participation in hostilities of the russians of the first wave of mobilization.

The attempt to mix the newly mobilized with the remnants of professionally trained did not work, and the incoherence of actions led to their mass death. Since then, nothing has changed, the organizational and material problems that appeared during the first wave in the fall of 2022 have remained unresolved. On the eve of the declared offensive in russia, there are not enough human resources to throw only experienced military personnel into battle. The kremlin has neither the time nor the resources to correct the lack of modern weapons, ensure equipment in working condition and a sufficient number of officers capable of training a huge number of untrained recruits. Therefore, in the “offensive” the tactics of using combined groups will again be used, which will lead to the loss of prospects to seize the initiative and advance in several areas of the front, and most importantly – to the death in the “meat grinder” of the rest of the russian military.

The impossibility of providing rotation for the sacred date of February 24 makes the situation close to catastrophic for the russian authorities and for putin personally. All the more so that this time the kremlin will not have a multiple advantage in artillery (as was the case at Severodonetsk), and Ukraine will already have the means of long-range countermeasures against missile attacks.

However, the public announcement of mobilization against the background of general military failures and numerous casualties threatens the russian dictator with a drop in approval rating and defeat in the upcoming presidential elections in 2024. Therefore, putin hesitates between such a decision and the strategy of continuing “quiet mobilization”.

❗️ For the russian authorities, the predicted mobilization remains the only way to restrain the negative development of events at the front and delay the inevitable defeat. Therefore, even if putin does not dare to announce another wave of mobilization, the russians will continue to mobilize “quietly” in order to increase the number of russian armed forces to participate in a number of russian offensive operations in the spring and summer in the east and south of Ukraine. However, the new round of mobilization will not help russia, but will only reduce its military potential.