The events of the last few days indicate that the topic of a possible attack on Ukraine by Belarus has become relevant again. Recently, the russian federation has intensified measures to force the leadership of Belarus to enter into an open war against Ukraine.
On October 4, the self-proclaimed president lukashenko confirmed the participation of Belarus in the so-called russian special operation on the territory of Ukraine, and on October 10, he announced that russia and Belarus had agreed on the deployment of a joint “regional grouping of troops” due to the “escalation” on the western borders of Belarus.
Since October 6, the armed forces of the russian federation have resumed the practice of using the republic’s airspace to launch missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
On October 16, the first echelons with russian servicemen (about 9,000) of the “regional grouping” of troops began to arrive in Belarus. In total, according to Ukrainian intelligence, russia plans to place up to 20,000 conscripts in Belarus.
lukashenko decided to carry out a covert mobilization, which is carried out in the villages, without affecting the big cities. The mobilization will take place under the guise of checking the combat capability of the troops and increasing the staffing of the combat units of the army of Belarus. According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, 6 mechanized and amphibious battalions of Belarus are currently concentrated near the Ukrainian border.
The russian federation uses RB as a “hub” for the transfer of equipment to strengthen the forces of the occupiers in Ukraine, as well as the deployment of Iranian drones. In total, since the beginning of the full-scale aggression, 26 echelons of military cargo with a total weight of more than 10,000 tons have been sent from Belarus to the russian federation. Only since the beginning of October, Belarus has sent almost 30 wagons with ammunition to the occupying forces in the Donetsk and Kherson directions.
However, lukashenko’s plans do not always coincide with putin’s plans to turn Belarus into a rear base for russian aggression against Ukraine.
Because of the internal risks that will pose a threat to his regime, lukashenko is doing everything to avoid the direct involvement of his armed forces in this conflict and is actually simulating violent activity.
The Belarusian army today is the basis of lukashenko’s support, the loss of such a base due to the low quality of the Belarusian armed forces will have devastating consequences for his regime.
The created propaganda “picture” of the meeting of the Belarusian military women of the russian troops “with bread and salt” only emphasizes that in reality the Belarusian society perceives the russians as occupiers.
lukashenko is afraid that under the guise of creating an allied group, the russians may drag tactical nuclear weapons into the territory of Belarus, which, in the event of a conflict, will launch a retaliatory nuclear strike on its territory.
Therefore, despite enormous pressure from putin, lukashenko refuses to send Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine, and in his public rhetoric insists on continuing the passive role of “defender” of the russian federation against “stabbing in the back by Poland and Lithuania.”
This behavior of lukashenko does not suit the kremlin – putin is counting on the maximum use of the neighboring state in his war against Ukraine, currently to distract the group of Ukrainian forces and achieve their greatest concentration in the North. In addition, russia plans to use training grounds and training centers of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus under the “cover” of the deployment of the “regional grouping of troops” to train mobilized russians.
Under these conditions, experts are considering probable scenarios for the further development of events.
The first scenario assumes that the lukashenko’s regime is preparing an active offensive operation against Ukraine under the “cover” of defensive measures. Provocative accusations by the Ukrainian side of shelling and acts of sabotage on the territory of Belarus can be the impetus for its initiation. In such a situation, the authorities can count on the support of the population “washed” by propaganda for changes from defensive actions to aggressive ones. If putin and lukashenko agree to use Belarusian troops against Ukraine, they will play a “shock role”, and the russian contingent will be used in “supporting” roles, for example, as the infamous “blockade troops”.
The second scenario assumes that, under the guise of deploying a regional grouping of troops, preparations are being made to gradually disarm and replace the Belarusian army with a russian one in order to remove lukashenko from office and implement the plan to annex Belarus. After all, the kremlin dictator dreams that the lands of Belarus, like Ukraine, were part of the russian federation. In this case, the military contingent of the russian federation will control the situation and suppress protests if the dictator tries to resist.
The third scenario assumes that lukashenko will continue to delay the direct participation of the Belarusian army in the war as much as possible. Such intentions are confirmed by the statements of the self-proclaimed president, who agreed to the formation of an allied military group, but with the requirement to conduct “10-12 military exercises to prepare for various types of combat operations” with it.
The use of one or another scenario of the development of events will depend on how the events at the front will develop.
Despite the fact that most Western experts currently consider a Belarusian invasion of Northern Ukraine unlikely, there is still a threat of missile and air strikes, as well as the use of Shahed-136 attack UAVs from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Ukrainian troops are monitoring the situation near the northern border of Ukraine and are ready to take appropriate actions.
