The idea that russia wants to provoke an explosion at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is back on the agenda. The media is clearly divided into two fronts. Russian propaganda resources are practicing the kremlin’s narratives and claiming that such a step is impossible. They accuse the Ukrainian authorities of artificially escalating the situation around the plant, as well as of Ukraine preparing a terrorist attack on ZNPP. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence has recently been sending clear signals that the threat is real, and by accusing Ukraine, the kremlin is preparing an alibi for itself in the eyes of the international community.
Although russia publicly denies any accusations, the facts of preparations to blow up the plant indicate that the kremlin is pursuing the next strategic plans.
First, it is a return to the long-familiar tactic of nuclear blackmail of the West to force Ukraine to agree to the kremlin’s preferred option for ending the war. This will allow the kremlin to stop Ukraine’s offensive in the south and “freeze” the front line in its current form to regroup and renew human and technical resources. No wonder the threat of a deliberate radiological incident was actualized before the upcoming NATO summit.
Secondly, russia continues to use the tactic of man-made disasters to deter Ukrainian counteroffensives, as was the case with the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.
Thirdly, the kremlin has finally recognized its loss in the war and is trying to leave a contaminated radioactive territory unfit for life and agricultural activity after its retreat from Ukraine. After all, in the event of a terrorist attack, 30 thousand square kilometers could become an exclusion zone: in addition to Dnipro, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions fall within the radius of potential radioactive damage.
In other words, according to russian calculations, blowing up the plant would collapse the country’s economy, depriving industry and household consumers of cheap nuclear electricity.
How likely is it that russia will blow up the plant?
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the plan for the attack was developed and approved by the kremlin, and the russians have completed preparations for the explosion. The russian military has reportedly already placed explosive-laden vehicles near 4 of the plant’s 6 power units and mined the cooling ponds. Although the IAEA team, which is permanently stationed at ZNPP, has not confirmed the fact of mining the plant, its experts have not been granted access to the engine room and the reactor cooling system. Moreover, russia can provoke a man-made accident at the plant not only by blowing it up, but also by artificially increasing the voltage in the power supply lines or by a shortage of water to cool the plant’s circuit. To prevent a potential Ukrainian crossing through the now mostly drained reservoir, the russians could discharge irradiated water from the ZNPP into the Kakhovka reservoir.
The urgent departure of some “Rosatom” personnel from Energodar is a sign that the plant’s territory is actually ready for blow up. Also, Ukrainian employees who signed a contract with the russian company were ordered to evacuate to the territory of the occupied Crimea by July 5. The staff remaining at the plant was instructed to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergency.”
Therefore, we should not rule out russia’s possible plans to sabotage the ZNPP. Even the demonstrative transfer of the plant to IAEA control leaves the threat of its remote detonation with subsequent accusations against Ukraine. The kremlin’s readiness for a nuclear disaster in southern Ukraine is determined by a number of deterrents.
The main one is putin’s fear of a harsh NATO response, namely a “response” with the use of strategic nuclear weapons. Putin’s decision depends to a certain extent on NATO’s readiness to recognize a possible nuclear incident at ZNPP as a nuclear threat to the Alliance (depending on the wind direction, the contamination could reach Romania and Turkey). Otherwise, it would be another signal to putin that he could use tactical nuclear weapons or provocations at nuclear facilities against Ukraine and its neighboring countries.
Moreover, russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam proved that it is impossible to predict the consequences of a man-made disaster, including a deliberate radiological incident at the ZNPP, for russia itself. According to analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War, the radiological incident will not bring any military benefit to russian forces, but will make the occupied south of Ukraine unusable for russian troops.
While the situation remains uncertain, additional radiation measuring devices have been installed in Kyiv, and exercises have begun in a number of regions of Ukraine to minimize the possible consequences of radioactive contamination. A special nuclear monitoring aircraft WC-135R Constant Phoenix arrived in Europe to take air samples and monitor radioactive emissions.
