From February 24, 2022, blackmail became for the kremlin the same tool of informational and psychological pressure on Ukraine and the countries of the West, as shelling of residential areas of peaceful cities.
The deck of the kremlin adventurer contained a triad of three, as it seemed to him, trump cards: oil and gas blackmail of the European energy infrastructure, the destruction of Ukrainian energy facilities, and the threat of using nuclear weapons. Thus, putin hoped to force the West and Ukraine to “peace” on his terms.
Let’s see what came of it.
🔸 In preparation for a full-scale war in Ukraine, since 2021, the kremlin has purposefully reduced gas reserves in European gas storage facilities under its control, as well as limited transit through the Ukrainian gas transport system. In moscow, it was expected that the shortage of energy carriers would force the public throughout Europe to demand from their leaders a reduction in support for Ukraine, primarily in the supply of weapons.
However, the oil and gas blackmail attempt was defeated, russia failed to “freeze” Ukraine and Europe. After all, the EU realized the risk of gas supply termination in a timely manner and in response adopted a plan for the energy “derussification” of the European Union (REPowerEU), which prescribes directions for liberation from russian energy dependence. The EU no longer imports coal and crude oil from russia, and gas supplies have declined significantly. Reorientation to gas supplies from Norway, Qatar and the USA, a relatively warm winter and gas reserves accumulated last year (at the beginning of January of this year, EU gas storages were 83% full) helped the EU to prevent an energy collapse and break the hopes of the russian dictator to crisis in Europe. Moreover, the kremlin’s dream of replenishing the budget at the expense of high world gas prices actually suffered a fiasco. But after a significant increase in gas prices in August of last year (3,600 euros/thousand cubic meters), in January of last year it fell to about 770 EUR/thousand. cubic meters In addition, gas consumption in Europe is expected to be about 16% below the five-year average during 2023. According to experts’ forecasts, in 2023 Gazprom will be forced to refocus on the domestic russian market, as well as significantly reduce its own gas production. The situation in the oil products market is not the best for the russian federation. russian Urals oil fell in price to $37.8/barrel, which is almost 30% below the set ceiling of $60 (in January 2022, the price of Urals exceeded $85/barrel).
🔸 The systematic destruction by russian missiles of the Ukrainian energy system, in order to force the higher Ukrainian political leadership to enter into negotiations with the kremlin regime on favorable terms for putin, did not achieve its goal. Due to the destructive consequences for the Ukrainian energy industry, the situation with energy supply in the country remains difficult, but controlled. The implemented emergency and hourly power outage schedules make it possible to stabilize the power system and pass the winter period at the proper level. According to the forecasts of specialists of Naftogaz of Ukraine, the available gas reserves in underground storages (11.7 billion cubic meters) and the volumes of own production (18.5 billion cubic meters) are sufficient to meet the needs of households, hospitals and critical infrastructure , even if its use increases due to damage to hydropower facilities, thermal power plants and thermal power plants, when coal is replaced by gas.
❗️ Of course, the possibility of risks of energy price increases remains. Among them are possible cooling, rising consumption of gas and oil products in China and deliberate damage to energy infrastructure, as was the case with Nord Stream 2, the disruption of which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a “new type of threat” to Europe. However, according to forecasts of Western experts, even these factors will not lead to significant fluctuations in prices on the world market, and in general, the demand for natural gas in the EU in 2023 will decrease by 14% to 340 billion cubic meters.
🔸 The third trump card in the deck of the kremlin dictator – “rattling nuclear weapons” – also does not work. After all, the Secretary General of the Alliance J.Stoltenberg clearly reported that if russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, NATO will react in a similar way. And there are three nuclear powers in the Alliance, so a nuclear strike would mean the end of russia’s existence as a state. Therefore, despite putin’s and medvedev’s new threats, the probability of russia’s use of nuclear weapons remains extremely unlikely and will in no way affect the volume of providing Ukraine with new models of Western weapons.
❗️ The combination of the listed conditions not only broke putin’s energy blackmail, but on the contrary stabilized Europe’s economic prospects and left the kremlin with the last levers of influence on Ukraine’s allies.
Intimidation with a “nuclear baton” will not save putin’s regime from defeat in Ukraine either, because the West is no longer afraid of russia’s empty nuclear threats.
