Today’s missile attack confirmed the obvious – the russians are changing their approach to shelling the territory of Ukraine. In autumn and winter, this was the tactic of using Shahed drones at night (between 11 p.m. and 3 a.m.), when they flew from the south and attacked the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, exposing air defense positions, followed by a missile attack in the morning. Now there are simultaneous “arrivals” of missiles and drones, as a result of which both energy facilities and civilian buildings were destroyed. In the attacks on March 9, russia used 81 missiles of various types and 8 Shahed-136/131 UAVs, including 28 X-101/X-555 missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, 6 X-22 air-based cruise missiles, 6 ballistic Kh-47 “Kinzhal” missiles, 13 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, 8 guided air missiles (2 – Kh-31P; 6 – X-59). That is, for the first time, the armed forces of russia used almost the entire range of missiles of various bases, and for the first time, 6 “Kinzhal” were launched at once, and the number of high-precision cruise missiles was significantly reduced.
☝️ “Kinzhal” is one of the newest russian cruise missiles, the carrier of which is the MiG-31K aircraft. The warhead of the missile weighs from 200 to 450 kilograms, depending on the modification, the range of the target is from 200 to 2,500 km. Flights at low altitudes (10-20 meters) and high speeds (from 180-240 meters per second) significantly complicate the work of air defense forces against these missiles. According to Western experts, the cost of one such missile for russia ranges from $1 million.
Kh-101 and Kh-155 are cruise missiles of the same type with different technical characteristics. They have a small dispersion area, are well tracked by locators, so they are detected and destroyed by the Ukrainian air defense system with a probability of 90% guarantee.
What does the change in the enemy’s approach to attacks on our infrastructure indicate?
Firstly, about the successful elimination of launchers as a result of targeted strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which created significant problems for the russians in the implementation of missile attacks. According to the commander of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine M. Oleschuk, the Defense Forces have destroyed more than 650 cruise missiles of the occupiers and more than 610 Iranian attack drones since September 11, 2022 alone. It was the success of the Ukrainian Defense Forces that led to a decrease in the intensity of missile attacks by missiles of the S-300 and S-400 type, from which front-line cities such as Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia are regularly fired upon.
Secondly, the change in this strategy is due to the fact that the russian federation did not achieve the desired goal with the winter shelling – to introduce the country into a blackout, and accordingly – into chaos. The russian federation cannot carry out shelling in the intensity of the winter period due to the depletion of modern high-precision missiles. Therefore, russia is forced to use everything “it has at hand” for shelling the territory of Ukraine, even such unusual “weapons” as balloons.
Thirdly, the russians still hope to persuade the Ukrainian political leadership to negotiate with mass shelling. By launching “Kinzhal” during a missile attack, the occupiers want to demonstrate that they can afford to use all types of weapons, even the most expensive ones.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Against the background of the failures on the Ukrainian front, the russian authorities and putin personally must show their people certain “victories”, at least at the level of massive shelling. Taking into account the situation when the russian army cannot help shelling Ukrainian territory, in the near future it can be predicted that the tactics of simultaneous use of a large range of missiles will be continued. The use of Kh-47 “Kinzhal” ballistic missiles will be limited due to their shortage (according to the ministry of defense of Ukraine, the approximate number of such missiles in the warehouses of the Soviet Union is 57 units).
It is obvious that the X-22 and S-300, which are absolutely not suitable for high-precision strikes, will be used for mass shelling of critical infrastructure facilities with a high probability of hitting residential areas.
❗️The attempt of the russian federation to use terrorist attacks to induce Ukraine to negotiate and “freeze” the war is doomed to failure. However, the change in shelling tactics towards increasing the use of Kh-47 “Kinzhal”, Kh-22 and S-300 ballistic missiles poses a serious problem for air defense. After all, taking into account the technical characteristics of missiles (supersonic/hypersonic), it is impossible to detect and shoot them down without the latest samples of Western air defense. The situation can be corrected through the supply of modern air defense equipment by Ukraine’s partners, which can also “work” against ballistic missiles of this class.
