Everything indicates that the leader of the PMCC “wagner” pprigozhin is returning to the political field of russia. This is evidenced by his gradual “reanimation” in the russian media field, where prigozhin’s statements are freely distributed. Therefore, according to him, “wagner” continues its activities in Africa, as well as in training centers in Belarus, performing tasks, “the outline of which is drawn more and more clearly.” prigozhin pays special attention to the demonstration of her loyalty to the kremlin authorities and to putin personally, stressing that “these are, of course, tasks that will be performed for the sake of the greatness of russia.”
What is behind the return of prigozhin to the public field?
First, putin no longer has any claims to the rebellion of the “wagners”. The case of armed rebellion against the founder of the private military company was closed, putin personally communicates with him in the kremlin, he travels between Belarus and the russian federation without problems and returns control over assets. The disbandment of the “wagners” actually resulted in a decorative division of its units into those who signed a contract with the russian armed forces and those who “went with prigozhin to Belarus.” In this way, putin, on the one hand, demonstrated to russian society the so-called prigozhin’s punishment for the attempted armed rebellion on June 24, and on the other hand, he preserved the military potential of mercenaries for conducting special operations in Africa and combat operations in Ukraine.
Moreover, his presence at the “russia-Africa” summit in st. petersburg and a joint photo with the ambassador of the Central African Republic indicate that putin continues to rely on the “wagners” as a force bearer of russian interests in Africa.
Thus, the kremlin will continue to strengthen the russian presence in Africa through units of the “wagner” PMC. As is known, part of the terrorists of the private military company is involved in the protection of the first persons of the state, in particular the president of the CAR Faustin-Archange Touadéra. In order to strengthen the protection of the upcoming constitutional referendum in the Central African Republic from the attack of local militant groups, another “wagner” military transport plane arrived there, bringing additional instructors to the country. Also, experts of the American Institute for the Study of War consider the “wagnerians” involved in the military removal of President Niger M. Bazoum and predict the appearance of mercenaries there at the “request” of the rebels, similar to what happened in Mali after the coup in May 2021. Also, to promote the kremlin’s agenda in African countries, putin actively uses the Afrique Media TV resource, which is financed by prigozhin. It is this resource that spreads russian propaganda in West Africa and is used to popularize the “wagner” PMC and conduct information campaigns to discredit the UN peacekeeping mission in Africa. In addition, prigozhin organized the arrival of African journalists to the russia-Africa summit in order to level the dissatisfaction of African leaders with disruptions in grain supplies.
Secondly, putin continues to rely on prigozhin in the matter of “shaking” the Belarusian borders with Poland and Lithuania and diverting attention from the Ukrainian direction. Due to the aggravation of the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border, all fighters loyal to prigozhin are recalled from their vacations to the location of their Belarusian camps. After all, the bulk of the mercenaries who arrived in Belarus have experience in smuggling and transporting illegal migrants. According to the Polish side, the “wagner” mercenaries are moving towards the Suval corridor, which connects the country with the Baltic states, and also separates the territory of the kaliningrad region and Belarus. This year alone, 16,000 attempts to illegally cross the Belarusian-Polish border by migrants with the assistance of “wagner” who will help illegal immigrants to enter Polish territory and destabilize Poland were recorded. To cover provocations at the border, mercenaries wear the uniforms of Belarusian border guards and under the guise of Belarusian employees accompany refugees in their attempts to cross the border. There is also some evidence that mercenaries will try to enter Poland under the guise of illegal immigrants, which creates additional risks. According to Ukrainian border guards, as of July 29, there are more than 5,000 mercenaries of the “wagner” PMC in Belarus.
Thirdly, putin continues to use prigozhin as a counterbalance to the growing influence of shoigu-gerasimov’s army groups, patrushev’s special services, and the administration of the president of the russian federation kiriyenko, who are trying to gain control over the political situation in the country. In response to the “forgiveness”, prigozhin continues to criticize the military leadership, but in every way approves and supports putin’s line.
❗️Therefore, prigozhin will continue to be a player controlled by putin in the political life of russia, Belarus and the African continent. However, the direct participation of “wagner” in hostilities in Ukraine is significantly decreasing.
