The presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14 are already being called the main elections of the year in Europe by international observers. Whether the country’s political system will be reset remains the main intrigue of these elections.
After all, the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has ruled the country for the past 9 years, and before that he was the prime minister for 11 years, for the first time in all this time is not the leader of the race, yielding to the candidate from the united opposition, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (56 % of respondents against 44%).
What caused the drop in Erdogan’s ratings and effectively destroyed the leadership of his party?
Firstly, the elimination of the consequences of the earthquake gave the opposition a reason to harshly criticize Erdoğan regarding the irresponsibility of developers, local corruption, and the low efficiency of the state apparatus and regional authorities. Taking into account the fact that the earthquake occurred in regions where up to 15% of his voters live, criticism from the opposition significantly weakened Erdoğan’s position. The economic crisis, inflation, unemployment and negative sentiment caused by the influx of migrants only increased the disillusionment with the authorities.
Secondly, for the first time in many years, the 6 largest opposition parties managed to unite and nominate a single candidate. In addition, the opposition delayed the nomination of a candidate until the last moment, which did not give Erdogan the opportunity to use administrative resources against him.
❗️The leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, counts on the support of a wide variety of voters who have suffered from “erdonomics”, and promises to fight for rights and freedoms, to get rid of corruption and nepotism. The promise to change the constitution and return Turkey to a parliamentary system with the removal of maximum presidential powers sounds particularly attractive to voters.
Thirdly, the opposition, following Erdogan, began to build a dialogue with various social groups by promoting the image of a “Turkish Muslim” who fights with “external enemies” for the faith and greatness of his own nation. Such ideas were popularized by Erdoğan, in contrast to Kılıçdaroğlu, who perceived the wearing of headscarves and hijabs for women as a threat to Turkish democracy. Currently, Kılıçdaroğlu has apologized for his mistakes and promised to allow women to wear headscarves, thus gaining the support of the religious part of society.
It is extremely difficult to predict the results of the elections, because the chances of the candidates are almost the same.
Western countries are betting on the opposition, because they believe that it will be easier to negotiate with the Turkish opposition on the supply of arms to Ukraine, control over sanctioned goods, preservation of the grain agreement, etc.
The kremlin supports Erdogan in the elections and finances Turkish experts and certain politicians to promote anti-Western sentiments and pro-russian narratives in Turkish society about the need for peace in Ukraine, the insidious interests of the West in this war, and the need to negotiate directly between russia and the United States, without Ukraine. It is no accident that the russians extended the term of the grain agreement only until the middle of May and will continue to act depending on the outcome of the presidential elections.
The results of the elections will largely be determined by the position of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a left-wing political force that defends the rights of at least 15 million Kurds in the country. PDP was not invited to join the opposition alliance, but Kılıçdaroğlu expects to negotiate with the party’s leadership on supporting his candidacy in the elections. Under these circumstances, the chances of Kılıçdaroğlu’s election in the first round will increase significantly.
Will the election results affect the correction of Turkey’s foreign policy towards Ukraine?
According to forecasts of Western experts, the victory of a certain political force in Turkey will not lead to a departure from the positions on Ukraine, because the opposition and Erdogan have approximately the same vision of Turkey’s role in the russia-Ukraine war.
❗️Although the Turkish opposition tries to avoid the issues of the future foreign policy program, it is likely that relations with the USA, the European Union and NATO will begin to warm up. There is also hope that, after gaining power, they will not block decisions regarding Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance. We should expect the continuation of the policy of supporting the independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, and the recognition of Crimea as russian or the opening of the Bosphorus for russian warships is considered unlikely. In addition, there are reasons to believe that if the opposition wins, given its ties with Western countries, control over the flow of sanctioned goods to and from russia will increase.
However, if Kılıçdaroğlu becomes the new president, we should not wait for drastic steps and renouncing ties with russia. Nationalist forces within the opposition are in favor of resuming dialogue with the EU, but consider the russian federation as a force that prevents the excessive strengthening of the US and are not against Turkey’s balancing position between russia and the West.
