On February 28 and March 2, screenshots of pages of allegedly secret Pentagon and NATO documents on the preparation of the Ukrainian offensive were published on the Discord platform. The materials contain reports on the equipment of new brigades being prepared by Ukraine. In addition, one of the documents claims that special forces from several NATO countries, including the United Kingdom, are operating in Ukraine. Another part of the documents concerns domestic political developments in the US allies Israel, Canada, and the UK. U.S. agencies have tried to get these files deleted, but have not yet succeeded. Moreover, on April 7, more than 100 American classified documents appeared on social media, this time relating to Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. They show that the United States has informants in almost every russian intelligence service and the general staff of the Defense Ministry, and is also monitoring the top military and political leadership of Ukraine and its allies.
The authenticity of these files has not yet been fully recognized by any country, but the New York Times, citing anonymous sources in the Biden administration, claims that some of the documents look authentic, but some have been altered. In particular, the estimate of russian losses (16-17 thousand) is implausibly low, as the West has reported higher numbers.
The reaction to the leak was restrained in the world.
Assistant Secretary of the Pentagon K. Meagher refused to comment on whether the documents were genuine, but admitted that the leak posed a “very serious risk to US national security.”
Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine M. Podolyak called the files “photoshopped and pseudo-leaked.”
Putin’s spokesman, d. peskov, characterized the leak as “quite interesting.”
In Israel and South Korea, most of the documents were called “fakes.”
Who is behind the information “leak”?
On April 13, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard’s intelligence wing, as a suspect in the leak of classified Pentagon data. He had access to intelligence documents and ran a private online group called Thug Shaker Central, which was responsible for the leak. It is noted that Teixeira, under the nickname OG, began leaking the first documents in the winter, allegedly without any particular purpose and not fully realizing the consequences. So far, there is no evidence that Teixeira worked for any country, but there were russians in the closed Discord chat where he uploaded the documents.
However, New York Times researchers believe that the author of the “leak” is the russian secret service. They argue that the materials edited by the russian intelligence services went viral and were commented on by pro-russian social media. The head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, K. Budanov, also stated in an interview with ABC News that russia was the sole beneficiary of the US intelligence leak.
At the same time, experts from the OSINT agency Molfar provide the following evidence of falsification of the materials published on the Discord platform incorrect date format (the document says “1 Mar”, but American English is usually written “Mar 1”), grammatical errors in spelling (in particular, the PMC “Wagner” is listed as Vagner instead of Wagner), the claim that Ukraine has already received Abrams tanks (although their delivery is officially scheduled for the end of 2023), and the indication of dimensions in inches instead of meters according to NATO standards.
Consequences of the leak for Ukraine, russia and the United States?
Although the so-called documents falsified by russia contain nothing about the direction of the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, the timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been changed due to the potential risk of leaking real information about military operations plans.
Russia is now trying to make the most of the situation and has launched another information campaign to discredit the Ukrainian government. For example, information from a leak about US surveillance of Ukrainian officials is already being used by russian propaganda to confirm the narrative of “external governance of Ukraine.”
For the United States, this could complicate relations with NATO allies due to accusations of the United States’ inability to keep its secrets. If Washington restricts allies’ access to future intelligence reports because of the leaks, it could lead to a loss of coordination of the Alliance’s actions, including military and information assistance to Ukraine. The allegations in the leaks about the presence of American agents in russia’s top military spheres will encourage the kremlin to search for and destroy them, which will reduce US awareness of putin’s plans.
❗️Russian manipulations around the leaked documents will not slow down Western aid to Ukraine or prevent the Ukrainian military from preparing for a counteroffensive. In addition, Ukraine’s allies will do everything to minimize the consequences of this “leak” as soon as possible.
