The situation in Belarus after the extradition there of a part of the “wagner” PMC and prigozhin himself continues to be in the focus of attention. After all, the information coming from there is not very reassuring. The ninth column of “wagners” has already arrived in Belarus on the route from the border with the russian federation (dubovichka checkpoint) to the “wagner” PMC camp (osypovichi). It had from 90 to 100 pieces of equipment. This column is larger than the previous one, and the cars in it moved as if on the so-called numbers. “lnr/dnr” and the russian federation, and without numbers at all. According to Western intelligence estimates, there are already approximately 2,000 to 2,500 mercenaries on the territory of the republic. It is clear that with each arrival of columns in the Republic of Belarus, this number increases (the State Border Guard Service of Ukrainian assumes that Belarus can receive about 8 thousand “wagners” in total). The personnel of the armed forces of russia is estimated at approximately 2,000 soldiers (this is an operational group of the russian militaries of up to 40 people and up to 2,000 people to support the functioning of russian military facilities in Belarus). In addition, at the airfields of the Republic of Belarus, as before, there are planes and helicopters for conducting reconnaissance and demonstrating readiness for use in the Ukrainian direction.
The presence of forces and means in the Belarusian direction shows that russia is not able to accumulate in Belarus the number of troops necessary for an attack on the Kyiv region or the north of Ukraine. Importantly, for the offensive on Kyiv in February 2022, the russian federation involved 45,500 troops.
And although there are no signs that they are going to “go to Kyiv” yet, certain events force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be on the alert. Thus, on the occasion of the transfer of the “wagner” flag from the base in krasnodar molkino to the new field camp in Belarus, prigozhin spoke to the “wagners” in Belarus. From his statements: “We are here, in Belarus, for some time, during which we will make the Belarusian army the second army in the world, and if necessary, we will stand up for them.” And the main thing is that “this is only the beginning of the biggest work that will be done very soon” and “we need to wait for the moment when we can show ourselves in full.” In addition to the classic dissatisfaction with the course of “his”, prigozhin promised to return to the Ukrainian front after all.
Currently, according to K. Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, a “hub designed for logistical purposes” and a recruiting center are being created for “wagners” in Belarus. In the future, the head of the GUR believes mercenaries will concentrate on operations abroad, primarily in Africa. For its part, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced that the “wagners” would train local servicemen. For this purpose, the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus have formed three special-purpose units, to which the “wagners” should transfer their combat experience, as well as conduct sabotage and counter-sabotage training for them. Now, instructors from the PVC are conducting classes with units of the territorial troops of the Belarusian army (mastering the skills of movement on the battlefield and tactical shooting, engineering training and tactical medicine) at the Brestkyy training ground. It is worth noting that despite prigozhin’s statement that the Belarusians met them “not only as heroes, but also as brothers”, the “wagners” are already in conflict with the local security forces. So, on July 20, there was a skirmish between local border guards and mercenaries in the Gomel region.
Therefore, the public process of disbanding the private military company “wagner” does not mean that the mercenaries will disappear. We are only talking about the liquidation of the PMC as an unofficial armed formation. Most of them signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation, the rest went to Belarus with their mission. On the one hand, prigozhin received state contracts from lukashenkao to train the army of Belarus in the skills of terrorists and murderers of the “wagner” PMC. On the other hand, after putin’s conversation with prigozhin and the “wagners”, it became clear that the mercenaries will perform more delicate tasks in Belarus, in particular, taking care of lukashenko’s behavior and forceful intervention in case he makes wrong, in the kremlin’s opinion, decisions. This concerns putin’s plans to use russian tactical nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus or to use the Belarusian direction for the offensive of russian troops.
❗️The threat of an attack from Belarus will remain until the end of the war, despite the fact that there are no recorded movements of military equipment and personnel near our border. Against the background of the transfer of russian nuclear weapons to Belarus, even a small group of combat-experienced and, above all, well-trained mercenaries of the “wagner” group is always a potential danger, and not only for Ukraine. According to the President of Poland A. Duda, the presence of the “wagner” PMC in Belarus remains a potential threat to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. And although Ukrainian intelligence has assured that the presence of “wagners” on the territory of the Republic of Belarus does not pose an additional threat to Ukraine, the relevant structures of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and NATO are carefully monitoring the situation and are ready for all possible scenarios.
