Centre for Countering Disinformation analyzes the prerequisites for the behaviour of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus in the context of his personal participation in a full-scale war against Ukraine.

In putin’s offensive plans, Belarus has a key geopolitical importance. Control over Belarusian territory provides russia with convenient land access to the borders with Ukraine, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. A well-developed transportation network, industry and mechanical engineering significantly increase the kremlin’s appetites.

For a long time, the Belarusian leadership managed to simulate an alliance with moscow in its own financial interests, while maintaining political distance. Back in 2019-2020, Lukashenko attempted to implement multi-vector geopolitics and improve relations with the USA. But in recent years, putin has stopped pretending to engage and has begun the process of an actual takeover of Belarus.

The protests that took place in August 2020 undermined Lukashenko’s regime and led to a loss of its legitimacy in the eyes of the West. The russian special services took advantage of such destabilization and essentially turned Lukashenko into a puppet. This is evidenced by the rapid career rise of Oleksandr Volfovich, whom Lukashenko appointed as the State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus in January 2021.

The peculiarity of Volfovich’s career, a native of Tatarstan who comes from a long line of military members, lies in the fact that he is a 2008 graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the russian federation – the personnel forge of the GRU (The Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, formerly the Main Intelligence Directorate). It was after his graduation that he rapidly began to gain influence and, in fact, became the Belarusian “Gauleiter”. Simultaneously serving as Lukashenko’s “sovereign eye” over all law enforcement agencies and power structures, Volfovich also acts as the “kremlin’s supervisor” over all the affairs of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus.

Furthermore, Volfovich works directly with Patrushev, which means that a significant part of Belarus’s security and law enforcement agencies are controlled from moscow. Volfovich does not answer to Lukashenko but implements the kremlin’s military strategy.

Due to russia’s limited resources and capacity resulting from its occupation of Ukraine, the russian special services are deliberately fueling the escalation of tension around Belarus. They are currently attempting to open a “second front” against Ukraine, using the pretext of Poland’s alleged plans to invade the western regions of Ukraine as the basis for their invasion.

Volfovich has also become the main advocate for involving Belarusians in the conflict and dragging them into the meat grinder of war. He is interested in destabilizing Belarus for the purpose of seizing power together with russian agents. The involvement of Belarusians in military operations will ultimately result in the russian occupation of Belarus.

Some analysts note that putin’s attitude towards Lukashenko has cooled due to “insufficient implementation of the goals set by moscow before the start of the war.” To compensate for the military defeat in Ukraine, they are considering joining Belarus to russia while retaining its formal statehood.

Given the current circumstances, the West is not committed to ensuring the self-proclaimed president of Belarus’s security, but it will not destroy him either. Moscow remains the only perceived threat that could potentially remove him from power. That is why Lukashenko is simultaneously “eradicating civil society from pro-Western ideology” and “purging kremlin cadres in the highest levels of government.”

Thus, the completely unresolved intrigue of “where the attack on Belarus was planned from” has been replaced by “where and why Belarus will launch a military invasion of Ukraine.” The change in the rhetoric of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Lukashenko, https://t.me/CenterCounteringDisinformation/1793 suggests his dependence on putin’s will. And the leader of this will in Belarus is the State Secretary of the country’s security council.

Therefore, in order to understand the events connected with Belarus, it is necessary, first of all, to monitor not Lukashenko’s statements, but the actions and statements of Oleksandr Volfovich. It is he who gradually inflates the inevitability of a military scenario regarding Ukraine, in order to prepare the population for participation in an unpopular war.

In case of an emergency, presidential powers in Belarus are to be transferred to the Security Council. Therefore, Lukashenko is justifiably concerned about his personal life and the integrity of his family, as well as the preservation of his autocracy.