❗The latest events clearly show that the kremlin’s plans for Africa remain unchanged. However, moscow has not paid such close attention to the African continent since the times of the USSR. At the end of the summer, delegates from Burundi, the Republic of Guinea, Cameroon, Mali, Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Ethiopia and South Africa were invited to the “Army-2022” forum in Kubinka near moscow. In July, russian minister s.lavrov has visited Egypt, Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia in five days. And finally, on October 25, putin met with the president of one of the poorest countries in the world – Guinea-Bissau.
❓ What is the reason for moscow’s special attention to Africa?
✅ Surrounding itself with African allies, the kremlin is trying to avoid the isolation caused by the war in Ukraine. In the conditions of all-encompassing international pressure, moscow is no longer able to ignore the countries of the African continent, which are turning into the last stronghold and hope of russian foreign policy.
✅ The kremlin and putin personally desperately need the official support of those countries of the African continent that formally have the right to vote in international organizations, primarily in the UN. Moreover, for russian propaganda, it is not necessary to directly support its aggressive policy, it is enough to challenge the approaches to condemning its aggression, which are advocated by Ukraine’s allies.
✅ The trend of the threat of mass starvation on the African continent modeled by the putin’s regime is aimed at diverting the West’s attention from the “Ukrainian issue”. After all, the artificial famine, according to putin’s plan, will provoke a migration wave in “russia-unfriendly countries” and the anti-immigration rhetoric of such putin lobbyists as Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Le Pen in France.
✅ The supply of weapons to African countries is one of the most important sources of replenishment of the russian state budget. The russian federation accounts for 49% of arms supplies to the countries of North Africa (for comparison, the USA – 15%, China – 10%, France – 7.8%). This year, russia plans to send arms worth $4 billion to Africa. moscow is currently supplying arms to 20 African countries, including Uganda, Rwanda, Mozambique and Angola.
✅ In order to create the latest russian technologies, African raw materials are needed, as their cost price is lower than the cost price of russian resources, in particular manganese, chromium, cobalt.
❓Why do African countries still remain in the arms of the kremlin?
African states like Uganda wholeheartedly support russia and putin’s policies, as they see his anti-Western démarche as a continuation of the Soviet policy of decolonization of the continent.
✅ Other countries support russia purely for practical reasons, trying to maintain access to russian exports. Against the background of the EU’s weakened presence on the continent, moscow is for them a key partner in supporting such vital industries as agriculture, mineral fertilizer production, and military industry. And the kremlin actively uses each of these industries as a lever for its influence.
In particular, the war in Ukraine for a long period stopped the export of grain crops from russia and Ukraine to Africa (44% of the total volume of wheat exports), which put them on the verge of a food crisis. Benin (which buys almost exclusively only russian grain), Sudan (70%), Egypt (62%), Rwanda (63%), Madagascar (62%), Congo (61%) and Senegal (59) remain dependent on the supply of russian grain. %). It is natural that most of these states have a neutral or pro-russian position regarding the war against Ukraine, both at the level of voting in the UN and in their public rhetoric. This was facilitated by the propaganda campaign launched by the kremlin, which claimed that anti-russian Western sanctions are the main cause of the food crisis in Africa and interruptions in the supply of grain.
The situation is similar with the export of russian fertilizers to Africa. Under the pretext of sanctions, russia and Belarus sharply reduced the volume of exports of potassium carbonate and ammonia fertilizers to African countries. Due to a radical decrease in supply, Ghana was the most affected, where russia-Belarus imports make up 52%, and Kenya in general was on the verge of a food collapse.
Therefore, putin’s declarative statement about russia’s readiness to transfer 300,000 tons of fertilizers to African countries for free achieved its propaganda goal. Despite the fact that this proposal remained unanswered by the UN and the European Commission, it was received by the leaders of Benin, South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo as a “gesture of goodwill” on the part of putin.
It is these countries that we see in the list of countries participating in the forums of the Ministry of Defense and those that did not join the UN resolutions condemning russia’s actions in Ukraine.
✅ The policy of the authoritarian leaders of African countries towards Ukraine is significantly influenced by russia’s military presence in the region. The leader of russian foreign policy on the continent is the private military company “Wagner”. Since 2017, Wagner mercenaries have participated in military operations in Mali, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Libya, and Madagascar, and control diamond mining in the CAR and oil in Libya.
❗There is no doubt that Russia will continue to try to continue using “Africa
ansky case” to disunite the West and simulate the defeat of foreign policy isolation.
🔎 However, despite the powerful informational aggression, visits by high-ranking Kremlin officials to African countries and meetings of their leaders in the Kremlin, official support for Russia at the level of the states of the African continent is gradually decreasing.
At the last UN vote on the Ukrainian issue, Russia found itself in a record minority. The European Union resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine was supported by 29 out of 54 African countries, including several influential states of the continent, which previously refrained from supporting Ukraine – Angola, Senegal, Morocco, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau. Among those who took a neutral position are more than 20 African states from among the loyal allies of the Kremlin (Congo, Burundi, CAR, Namibia, Uganda, Tanzania and others). Even Eritrea, which has been showing support for the russian federation since February and previously voted against similar resolutions at the UN, decided to abstain this time. By the way, for Ukraine, the country’s position of abstaining or not voting during such votes does not mean neutrality, because almost all African countries at one time recognized Ukraine within its constitutional borders.
☝️ The trend of gradual withdrawal of African countries from russia was facilitated both by the EU restarting its relations with the African continent and by Ukraine’s intensification of relevant diplomatic efforts.
The results of the October tour of Africa by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, D. Kuleba, are already changing the situation in favor of Ukraine.
✅ President of Ivory Coast Alassane Ouattara confirmed the country’s accession to the Crimean Platform.
✅ The President of Ghana, Nana Akufo-Addo, supported the position of Ukraine and opposed the spread of Russian influence in Africa.
✅ Kenya’s representative at the UN condemned russia’s recognition of quasi-republics and russia’s violation of international law.
✅ The President of Guinea-Bissau, Oumaru Sissoko Embalo, during his visit to Kyiv, supported Ukrainian efforts to create a special tribunal for the crimes of the russian federation.
