❗ As the permanent representative of the russian federation at the UN, gennady gatilov, said in an interview with Reuters on October 13, next month russia is ready to refuse the extension of the “grain agreement” if its demands are not met. According to him, on October 12, moscow sent a letter with a list of complaints to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. At the same time, it is not known what exact claims russia is making. gatilov refused to provide a copy of the letter with a list of complaints that russia sent to the UN. The discussion of these demands should take place on Sunday, October 16, during a meeting of UN representatives with the russian side in moscow.
🔎 The agreement on the unblocking of ports and the export of Ukrainian grain was signed on July 22 by Ukraine, Turkey and the UN. russia also signed a mirror agreement with Turkey and the United Nations, guaranteeing the safety of the passage of ships. The next day after the signing of the agreements, russian troops fired four Kalibr missiles at Odesa, two of which hit the pumping station of the Odesa seaport, injuring one of the workers.
The “grain corridor” was called for 120 days to prevent a global food crisis, but the kremlin has repeatedly complained about its implementation, claiming that it faces difficulties when selling fertilizers and food. So far, more than 7.38 million tons of agricultural products have been shipped from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny. Most of the grain was sent to the countries of Africa, Egypt and the Middle East. The “grain agreement” expires in November, by which time it must be extended.
☝️ As an “argument” in order not to continue the agreement in its current form, the kremlin authorities are trying to use the results of a dubious investigation, which was hastily conducted by the FSS in russia after the explosion on the Crimean bridge. In the information space of russia, a narrative is being “accelerated” where the “terrorist attack” is positioned as a reason for terminating the grain agreement. According to the FSS, the explosives for blowing up the bridge allegedly arrived by sea from Odesa to Bulgaria in August, that is, using the “grain agreement”.
☝️ putin’s statement is also spreading that it is necessary to limit the directions of grain export through the “grain corridor” from the territory of Ukraine due to the fact that almost all grain was sent to the EU and only 3% goes to African countries.
In fact, according to Barva Invest, 22% of Ukrainian grain exports went to Africa and the Middle East, and 28% to Europe.
☝️ The reaction of the West was expected.
✅ UN Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths believes that the best choice for overcoming global hunger is the opening of the Black Sea route for the export of Ukrainian grain.
✅ The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe emphasizes the need to support the “grain agreement”, which made it possible to end the blockade of the Black Sea.
✅ The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, responded to russia’s demands regarding the “grain agreement”, calling on all states and organizations to make it clear to moscow that food blackmail must stop.
✅ President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered putin to extend the “grain agreement”.
✅ The “European Business Association” also wants to extend the period of validity of the “grain corridor”, which appealed to the UN and Turkey to extend it and include the Mykolayiv port hub in the list of ports.
❓ What is behind russia’s intentions to disrupt the Istanbul Agreement?
✅ By trying to limit grain exports from Ukraine, russia seeks to preserve its energy influence on Europe, using the threat of a food disaster as a tool to blackmail the West. This is confirmed by putin’s announced plans to create a gas hub in Turkey to manipulate prices for the delivery of russian gas to the EU.
✅ Grain blackmail for Ukraine is the intention of the russian federation to disrupt sea exports, cause financial losses (the opening of ports allowed Ukraine to receive up to 1 billion hryvnias per month) and encourage Kyiv to negotiate on the kremlin’s terms.
✅ The kremlin is putting pressure on the UN, trying to provide in the new agreement permission to export not only Ukrainian grain, but also unblocking the export of russian food products and fertilizers, which are subject to Western sanctions.
❗Thus, putin is putting pressure on the UN and Ukraine in order to restore the operation of the “Togliatti-Odesa” ammonia pipeline for the export of russian ammonia through the Black Sea, which stopped with the beginning of the full-scale war of the russian federation against Ukraine. Such an agreement will make it possible to supply up to 2 million tons of ammonia worth about $2.4 billion from russia every year.
✅ The kremlin is trying to stop the trend of falling demand for russian grain on international exchanges. After all, with the unblocking of Ukrainian seaports for the export of grain, the volume of sales of russian grain fell sharply due to the much higher quality of Ukrainian products.
❗ The international community must give a clear answer to the kremlin’s food blackmail and by extending the term of the “grain agreement” provide humanitarian aid to the population of African, Asian, Middle Eastern countries that rely on the export of agricultural products from Ukraine.
