The rf’s manipulative actions to intensify the EU’s gas blackmail for the purpose of political pressure.

For 9 years, russia has been using gas blackmail in a hybrid war against Ukraine. The documented information and psychological campaigns had distinct recurring narratives that “Ukraine will not survive” without russian gas. The same narratives are now being extrapolated to Western audiences. Russia intimidates Europeans with an energy crisis due to a potential gas shortage. The kremlin media conclude that if governments fail to solve the problem of energy supplies, mass protests may break out in prosperous European countries.

We will dwell on the main manipulative psychological techniques used by russian propaganda

The kremlin’s unpredictability

The former KGB officer putin, fueling the fears of Europeans, uses the uncertainty of his actions regarding russian gas supplies as an element of psychological terror.

By manipulating the dependence of some countries on gas, putin is trying to emotionally exhaust governments and turn society against the state leadership. Thus, gas is not an economic, but a political weapon for the kremlin. To deepen the energy crisis, russia first demanded to pay for gas in rubles and blocked gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland in order to compel others to comply with its conditions. And now, even some companies that pay in rubles are no longer receiving gas.

Changes in GTS capacities

“Gazprom” continues profiting on the gas market and, at the same time, paralyzes the EU’s preparation for a new heating season. It has banned the use of the Yamal gas pipeline through Poland and ignores the capacity of the Ukrainian GTS, using only 40% of its available potential.

European gas storages are 60% full and at the current pace, artificially created by russia, they will not have time to fill them to the required level, and in case of a complete shutdown, an energy crisis may occur.

At the same time, on July 25, Gazprom abruptly increased the pressure on the main gas pipeline “Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod” on the Ukrainian – russian border without warning, which almost led to an accident. 

“Nord Stream 2”

An indicative manipulation was the reduction of supply volumes via Nord Stream by 40% of the nominal capacity in mid-June, allegedly due to the repair of one of the eight turbines. Canada has violated the sanctions and sent the repaired turbine to Germany. But the russian side refuses to accept the turbine and demands specific documents proving that the transfer of this equipment does not violate sanctions. All this is aimed at forcing the EU to launch Nord Stream 2. During his trip to Iran, putin openly stated that “if the EU wants gas, it has to unmothball Nord Stream 2”.

Prices

The main goal of Gazprom is to maintain uncertainty in gas supplies to fluctuate prices. For a month and a half in the summer, russia achieved a twofold increase in gas prices in Europe, reducing the volume of supplies through all available routes.

Following the announcement of a new reduction in supply volumes, gas prices on world markets have doubled since June 1 – from $923 to $1949 per 1000 cubic meters. At the same time, average monthly gas imports by pipelines from russia to the EU decreased by 33% compared to 2021. Since the beginning of the year, the rf has lost almost half of its market in the EU. Europe’s dependence on russian gas has decreased from 40% to 20% of the volume of gas imports. Meanwhile, the volumes of liquefied natural gas supplies from the USA for the first time exceeded the level of russian gas supplies.

However, the EU is ready for further gas blackmail of russia up to complete gas cut-off. The European Commission has recently proposed to EU countries a voluntary reduction of consumption by 15% from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023. Hungary was the only country that did not support the gas saving plan proposed by the European Commission, and even decided to buy gas from russia bypassing Ukraine.

However, for example, the German government plans to use this occasion to legislatively reduce the heating temperature in public buildings to 19 degrees, as well as to ban citizens from using gas to heat water in their swimming pools. Those, who will save fuel, will be financially stimulated.

Given that Canada has violated sanctions by supplying Germany with a turbine, as well as the approaching heating season, the kremlin will soon intensify blackmail tactics to undermine the effectiveness of Western sanctions.

In addition, with the help of gas blackmail, putin wants to pressure European leaders to reduce or curtail aid to Ukraine in order to compel Kyiv to negotiate on the kremlin’s terms.