Western experts consider russia’s war against Ukraine to be the biggest interstate conflict in recent decades, and the question of its end and results remains the most important for the United States and the whole world.
In particular, analysts of the National Security Research Department of the American research organization RAND Corporation in their report offer the following scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine.
☝️ RAND (Research and Development) is a strategic research center that, commissioned by the US government and the US armed forces, conducts research on military-technical and strategic aspects of national security. Funded from the US budget, much of the research is strictly classified. The authors of the report emphasize that the study examines the scenarios of the war in Ukraine exclusively through the prism of harm or benefit to the US, and therefore such forecasts should be treated with considerable caution.
The “absolute victory” scenario envisages the indisputable defeat of the russian army, followed by the establishment of new power in the kremlin. This conclusion is justified by the combat impulse acquired by Ukraine last December to fight until the complete liberation of the occupied territories from the russians and the minimal risk of russia using nuclear weapons or starting a war with NATO. However, experts consider such an optimistic scenario of the end of the war in Ukraine unlikely. For putin, losing the war means an existential threat not only to the russian federation, but primarily to his regime. Therefore, the fear of losing power pushes the dictator to more risky, although often absurd, decisions on the battlefield in the hope of changing the situation there in favor of russia at any cost. According to the forecasts of analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the russian occupiers intend to seize the initiative in military actions in 2023. In the coming months, the enemy may try to carry out a major offensive in the Luhansk region, because the seizure of Donbas is included in the list of official goals of the kremlin. Analysts are sure that at this stage none of the countries will be able to win an absolute victory. In addition, Ukraine has never officially declared its intention to invade russia, but aims only to return its territories.
A “ceasefire agreement” scenario involves the parties ceasing hostilities and putting in place mechanisms to ensure that they do not resume (such as the creation of a demilitarized zone). In this case, russia stops trying to seize new territories, and Ukraine refuses to counter offensive and release its lands, but already captured territories will remain under russian rule. Key political issues – from the payment of reparations by russia to the geopolitical status of Ukraine – will be ignored, and in order to return the occupied territories, Ukraine will have to use not military, but diplomatic, political and economic means. The “truce” for Ukraine is a dead end, which only gives the russian federation an opportunity to prepare for the next attack.
The scenario of a political settlement (a peace treaty) involves both an unconditional ceasefire and the resolution of some disputes that caused the war or arose during it. For Ukraine, this means strengthening the West’s obligations regarding its security, since it does not trust the russian federation to comply with any agreements. Also, the subject of negotiations will be the issues of the reconstruction fund, bilateral trade, culture and freedom of movement, conditions for the lifting of Western sanctions on russia. According to RAND experts, the current level of hostility between the russian federation and Ukraine, as well as between the russian federation and the West, makes a political settlement unlikely. After all, the parties’ general rejection of the possibility of negotiations aimed at ending the war increases, on the one hand, mutual optimism about the future course of the war (each of the parties believes in absolute victory), and on the other, mutual pessimism about peace (Ukraine believes that there are serious problems with security measures, russia does not see a clear path to easing sanctions).
However, the authors of the RAND report note that the highest priority for the US is to prevent a protracted war and minimize the risks of its escalation (use of nuclear weapons and direct conflict with NATO). At the same time, although the interests of the United States and Ukraine “often coincide, they are not synonymous.” Therefore, out of all the scenarios for the end of the war, Ukraine is satisfied only with victory and the unconditional liberation of all occupied territories, including Crimea and Donbass. It is becoming increasingly clear that while putin continues to receive victory reports about russian “successes” on the front, the russian army is gradually surrendering ground on the battlefield, and the economy is increasingly depleted by sanctions.
Losing this war is unacceptable not only for Ukraine, but also for the entire collective West, as it will completely destroy the entire world order that has existed since the end of World War II. Therefore, everything, except the defeat of russia and the return of Ukraine to the internationally recognized borders of 1991, will be the capitulation of Ukraine and the West to putin.
