The Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC of Ukraine analyzes the evolution of changes in russian propaganda narratives in the information space of the occupant state.
Preparing the russian population for war, the rf propaganda significantly intensified anti-Ukrainian rhetoric at the end of 2021, aiming to reinforce contemptuous and hostile sentiments.
In particular, the rf propaganda denied the historical facts of the existence of the Ukrainian nation, discredited the Ukrainian statehood and formed the opinion that Ukrainians and russians are one nation. At the same time, they propagated narratives about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government after the Revolution of Dignity and the neo-Nazi nature of its actions with the support of Western intelligence services.
An important area of discrediting was the thesis of geopolitical exploitation of Ukraine by the collective West. The propaganda formed a narrative about the existence of an external threat to russia from NATO and the US, which planned to use Ukraine as an aggressor against it and therefore “demonized peaceful russia” with accusations of preparing for war.
In the context of statements about the oppression of the russian-speaking minority and the forcible ousting of everything russian from Ukraine, the justification for the potential “forcing Ukraine to peace” on russia’s terms was formed. Thus, the rf propaganda disseminated theses about the need to resolve the Ukrainian issue in Donbas by military means.
Anti-Ukrainian hatred, which reached its climax in February 2022, was intensified by a patriotic “frenzy” after the invasion. Propagandists massively declared the super-fast capture of Kyiv and the inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces within the first three days:
● o.lukashenko: «Ukraine will not wage war with us – this war will last maximum three or four days. The CSTO showed us that while they will turn around and send troops, we will already be near the English Channel»
● m.symonian: «we will defeat Ukraine in a hot war in two days! Well, what is there to defeat, Lord? Well, we will suppress the fire points…»
● o.skabeyeva: «we will seize Kyiv in two days, and then the city will fall»
● v.solovyov: «if you think that we will stop on Ukraine – think three hundred times. Let me remind you that Ukraine is only an intermediate stage in ensuring the strategic security of the russian federation».
In the first days of the war, russian propagandists reported on numerous victories of the russian army, the breaking of the unipolar world under the hegemony of the United States and the entry of russia to the forefront of geopolitics.
Subsequently, the pathos in their speeches was diminishing and the failure to achieve a swift victory was explained as follows: “in fact, Ukraine is a large European country, of course, such a territory cannot be quickly conquered in a month of ‘special operation’”.
After the failed blitzkrieg attempt, the main focus of russian propaganda was the interpretation of the goals and objectives of the so-called special military operation. It turned out that “demilitarization” and “denazification”, which were announced as the goal of aggressive military expansion, were not clear for most russians.
So far, the final goals of the so-called SMO, which were transformed and added as the situation on the frontline developed, have not yet been made public.
In March, the rf propaganda replicated theses about the historical error of Ukrainian statehood and the country’s inability to exist independently. They promoted the narrative of the need for a quick “peace on any terms” as a result of negotiations with the rf and partial compromises on the already occupied territories.
There was discrediting of Ukrainian refugees in Europe, supply of Western weapons to Ukraine, “which only prolongs the conflict”, and nuclear safety of Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
The discourse on the language issue and discrediting the actions of the country’s political leadership, military and territorial defense soldiers in the regions proceeded. They introduced the narrative that “the operation is developing successfully and strictly according to pre-approved plans, and no one expected it to be completed in a few days”:
● s.shoigu: «a ‘ceasefire’ is declared and humanitarian corridors are established to allow the residents of the besieged settlements to leave, which slows down the russian offensive to avoid civilian casualties»;
● s.lavrov: «the duration of the russian special operation in Ukraine is determined by the order to strictly avoid strikes on civilian infrastructure»;
● o.lukashenko: «and I will now show you where the attack on Belarus was being prepared from. And if a preventive strike had not been launched 6 hours before the operation…»
In addition, in the early stages of the war, the rf propaganda popularized “scary stories” about imaginary Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” and American military biolaboratories on the borders of Ukraine and the rf:
● m.mukhalkov: «the trajectory of the flight of infected birds over russia has been estimated – this is an absolute fascist attempt to annihilate the Slavic ethnic group altogether»;
● d.pieskov: «there were clashes with mobile groups of nationalists and Banderites, who used cars and trucks, where they installed impact devices, according to the principle of jihadmobiles, only they are now called Banderomobiles».
While at the first stage of the war, russian propaganda considered the struggle against the “neo-Nazi” Ukrainian authorities to be the most pressing problem, later they spread the narrative of dehumanization of Ukrainians.
In particular, in early summer, the most popular narrative was to discredit the Ukrainian army in order to disrupt the supply of Western weapons. The topics of the global food crisis and discrediting of Ukrainian energy and nuclear safety due to the terrible state of the infrastructure were also actualized.
To justify the delay in the “liberation” of ORDLO, russian propaganda used the narrative that the russian army is fighting NATO with the Ukraine-anti-russia project because of its striving for a fair multipolar world.
Thus, the purpose of the “special operation” was “countering the US global hegemony”. In particular, the representative of the russian federation to the United Nations v. nebenzya stated: “russophobia has become the main national product of the Ukrainian authorities. This is a proxy war of the collective West against russia”.
And on September 1, when comparing diligence with a “rubber ass” at a meeting with Kaliningrad schoolchildren, v.putin claimed: “the mission of our soldiers is to stop this war and protect russia itself, because an anti-russian enclave has been created on the territory of Ukraine, which threatens russia”.
Meanwhile, the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region and the panic retreat of the “second army of the world” once again changed the goal of the “SMO” from “denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine” to “necessary tactical retreat to save troops and avoid the ‘cauldron’ and “reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions”.
In autumn, the propaganda rhetoric was significantly transformed:
● v.solovyov: «I am somehow uneasy, I certainly wish that ours only pressed and only attacked, but it does not happen in reality, it is important in reality how it all ends»;
● m.symonian: «The worst thing we can do now is to argue with each other. If we are a rich country, why do we collect money for “copters” and bulletproof vests? And if we are poor and do not have the means for this, then why are we feasting?»
Finally, the rf propagandist began to call “SMO” a “war with a country that has endless human resources and tremendous combat experience”. The media started to actualize the theses about the impossibility of defeating Ukraine with the available resources, because it is supported by powerful technological powers. Calls for the need to “start fighting for real” have become more frequent:
● g.ziuganov, head of the CPRF: «the war is ongoing and we have no right to lose it, we should not panic, we need full mobilization of the country and completely different laws»;
● s.myronov, head of “Fair russia – for the truth”: «we started the SMO, and now we are waging a real war with NATO, we need mobilization of the economy, budget, mobilization in the minds»;
● v.volodin, the rf State Duma speaker: «if Washington, continuing the war to the last Ukrainian, believes that it will not concern them, they are very much mistaken».
However, against the background of the current military defeats, the kremlin has not yet decided on the possibility of scaling up aggression against Ukraine. Although they realize that without general mobilization, russia is no longer able to win the war in Ukraine, and the declaration of martial law can lead russia to a revolutionary state and to the brink of civil war:
● d.pieskov: «currently there are no discussions about mobilization and martial law in russia, russians are consolidated around putin’s decision on special operation»;
● k.shakhnazarov, filmmaker, propagandist: «we must admit the defeat in the Kharkiv region and that we are at war with a powerful enemy»;
● a.isayev, the rf State Duma representative: «the purpose of the war with us is the elimination of russia as a state, we are fighting to preserve our own state, our multinational people, our civilization».
Thus, in the six months of the war with Ukraine, russian propaganda narratives about the war have been transformed from the belief that “russian soldiers will soon wash their feet in the English Channel” to the clamor “russia is in danger”.
