The consequences of the mutiny of the “wagner” PMC continue to destroy the fighting capacity of the russian army and, as a result, the kremlin’s last hopes for victory in the war. After the failure of prigozhin’s march, the main competitor in the struggle for power in the kremlin, the shoigu-gerasimov influence group, began to purge his supporters in the army. First of all, the “purges” affected the generals, who were not afraid to publicly declare corruption in the troops and the unprofessionalism of the leadership of the armed forces of russia and the general staff of russia. After the mutiny of the founder of the PMC, a number of russian generals disappeared from public space. Against the background of accusations of treason, the whereabouts of general s.surovikin, but everyone says that after the mutiny he was removed from the position of deputy commander of the occupying group in Ukraine and, probably, arrested. According to Western sources, in addition to him, a few hours after the start of the mutiny, 13 more senior officers were detained, and 15 were dismissed or suspended from service. According to available information, secret prisons are massively being created in moscow and the region to hold high-ranking officers of the ministry of defence of russia.
One of the last “victims” was the commander of the forces of the 58th occupation army in the Zaporizhzhia region, a very popular in the army environment, major general i.popov, who, on the initiative of gerasimov and by order of the shoigu, was released after criticizing the top military leadership of russia for the lack of support at the front and heavy losses. But the main reason for the dismissal of the priest was his attempt to appeal to the head of the kremlin with a request to relieve gerasimov’s command of operations in Ukraine. Information about the public disagreements between the russian military leadership reached the public and angered the russians so much that putin was forced to react, but in his usual style. In order, on the one hand, to at least somehow appease his future voters, and on the other – to preserve the loyalty and support of the shoigu-gerasimov clan, putin is carrying out a purely decorative transfer of gerasimov from the position of commander of the russian troops in Ukraine. So, the overall responsibility for the course of the war now rests with the commander of the airborne troops of the russian federation, general M. Teplinsky, but as the chief of the general staff, gerasimov actually remained in charge of the russian armed forces.
While it is difficult to say how widespread the position of “truth lovers” is among the russian generals and officers, however, the entry into the public arena of a cadre combat general became a serious challenge both to the highest army command and to putin himself. The resignation of general popov revealed the huge problems that the russian army is currently facing. After all, prigozhin’s rebellion divided the generals and officers of the russian army into those who supported the “wagner” and those who remained supporters of shoigu and gerasimov. In fact, this split was another confirmation that the mutiny did not arise out of an equal place, but because of discontent in the generals’ environment, which not only ripened, but also began to spill over the edge. However, one should not evaluate the generals’ micro-rebellion as an attempt to end the war and leave Ukraine. All the listed generals are adepts of continuing hostilities until the “victorious” end, and the purpose of their protest is more focused on the daily struggle for their survival and removing obstacles on the way to the “denazification” of Ukraine by order of the kremlin, whoever leads it.
It is obvious that the split in the army circles and the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine weakened the defense of the russians, in particular in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region, and forced them to retreat to prepared defensive positions. The lack of reserves for the rotation of advanced units and russian losses from artillery fire do not make it possible to correct the situation, and unmotivated rotations of troop commanders only make it worse. What’s more, in the close circle of the head of the general staff of the russian federation, they talked about new priorities in the war. In this way, v.prokhvatylov, a senior employee of the academy of military sciences, where gerasimov is the president, after the situation in the Belgorod region actually called for an end to attacks on Ukrainian lands, and to concentrate efforts on strengthening the russia-Ukraine border with the transfer of troops and the creation of territorial defense. There is no doubt that gerasimov’s subordinate voiced the opinion of the highest russian military command.
❗️The situation inside the russian army is becoming so threatening for the kremlin that it is quite possible that the next march on moscow may be led not by some former criminal adventurer, but by one of the combat officers from the “general armageddon” support group. And the detonator of such an event can be significant successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Time will tell whether the struggle of various influential groups in the ministry of defense of the russian federation will go according to such a scenario, but for Ukraine this confrontation is only beneficial, because it weakens the very structure of the russian army and brings its undoubted defeat in the war closer.
