Resonant statements of the head of the PMC “Wagner” prigozhin have recently become a significant factor of the “shaking” of the kremlin power and its concept for an unalternative victory in Ukraine.
In his video message from March 4, prigozhin said that the retreat of his troops from Bakhmut would destroy the entire front, and then russia would blame the mercenaries for the defeat in the war. In addition, prigozhin insists that in this case the front “will spread to the russian borders, and maybe even further.” prigozhin’s frankness is impressive – he complains that the russian authorities will blame the “Wagnerites” for defeats in the war, since the retreat of the mercenaries from Bakhmut will cause a “spring effect”, and Ukrainian forces will break into the territory of the so-called “LNR” from all sides, “grab Luhansk, Sorokine” and will enter the territory of russia.” He further admits that Crimea will be deoccupied. At the end of the statement, the owner of “Wagner” PMC accused the country’s military leadership of not preparing the army for war. Note that the press service of the PMC did not publish this video on the company’s website, but spread it on social networks.
prigozhin’s conflict with the governor of st. petersburg, o.beglov, gets out of control and becomes too public. The press service of the owner of the military company published another statement of his with the demand to send beglov to resign. Expressions with the hashtag #BeglovVonIzPetersburga contained direct insults to the governor, who should be “kicked out with a bad broom”, because “any janitor will cope with the management of the city better than a runaway.” It is characteristic that beglov is called a person close to putin, an old acquaintance of the president, whom he pushed to the post of governor. At the same time, social networks began to spread screenshots from public places associated with prigozhin, with calls to go to a rally on March 8 against beglov. Later, a refutation of this information appeared in official publications related to PMC “Wagner”, but few people believed it.
Also on russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels the video, in which fighters with patches of the “Wagner” PMC shoot from a machine gun at the portraits of gerasimov and the chief of the main staff of the ground forces, o.lapin, was spreaded.
What is behind such aggressive rhetoric, which actually destroys for russian society the victorious statements about the development of events under Bakhmut?
First of all, prigozhin is in such a psychological state when emotions prevail over common sense. He feels “backed into a corner” because of his removal from military command and putin’s personal support. The next “round” of the battle for closeness to putin between prigozhin and shoigu ended with the victory of the latter. Moreover, prigozhin said on Monday that his representative was unable to gain access to the headquarters of the russian military command.
Now military officials may not worry that prigozhin will bring his vision of events in the occupied territories to putin. Currently, shoigu and gerasimov show contempt for the ministry of defense of the russian federation for the needs of “Wagner” in terms of ammunition and replenishment of personnel.
In addition, during the war, prigozhin’s relations with the administration of the president of the russian federation, in particular with the first deputy chief of stuff of presidential administation s.kiriyenko, became complicated. The administration is unhappy that the businessman is interfering in its sphere of responsibility, trying to influence the appointment and resignation of officials.
Secondly, prigozhin seeks to regain putin’s trust and prove to everyone that he is the main savior of russia and without his troops the russian federation will lose the war. With his criticism of the generals, prigozhin hopes that putin will be disappointed with the army and can once again “flatter” his “cook”. This is the reason for his, at first glance, incomprehensible actions in publicizing and then refuting his overly harsh statements. However, he does not see any other way to change the situation.
With such an arrangement of forces around the head of the kremlin, prigozhin is unlikely to be able to regain his position. The elimination of the “Wagner” PMC from leading positions on the front and in the information space will continue. shoigu and gerasimov will try to remove prigozhin from the direct leadership of the PMC, and to turn “Wagner” into a “compact managed” structure. Part of the mercenaries will go to the units of the army and other power structures, where they will solve strictly defined tasks under the leadership of military personnel. In information attacks against the former “cook”, the military will actively use the position of i.strelkov (girkin), who wrote on his channel that prigozhin must be completely removed from the front and removed from the leadership of the “Wagner” PMC.
❗️ The discord between the leadership of personnel and private military formations testifies to the weakness of putin’s government and significant problems on the Ukraine-russia front. The head of the kremlin can no longer control his subordinates and stop their struggle for the seat of power in post-putin russia.
