Some information resources of the temporarily occupied territories (TOT) of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the russian media, disseminated news, the main narrative of which was the alleged shelling of the territory of the russian federation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (near the village of Stanytsia Mytyakynska).
Representatives of the Investigative Committee of the russian federation initiated a criminal case over the incident (https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1657627/).
Further, the information space of the TOT of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the russian federation, spread reports of another attack by an allegedly Ukrainian Grad MLRS shell on the territory of the russian federation. However, there is no official confirmation of this fact by russian law enforcement agencies.
After studying this news content, analysts of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC created a map of the likely trajectory of provocative fire by the russian occupiers on the territory of the russian federation. In fact, the only place along the entire demarcation line suitable for conducting provocative fire on the territory of the russian federation is the area near the village of Pankivka, controlled by the occupation administration of the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This area is located on a significant elevation, less than 40 km away from the russian settlements of Stanytsia Mytyakynska and Patronivka in a straight line (the range of the Grad MLRS is up to 40 km), and the possible trajectory of artillery fire passes over the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Stanytsia Luhanska.
Given the above information, in the event of real provocative fire on the territory of the russian federation by representatives of the illegal armed group TOT of Luhansk region, it will visually appear that the fire is coming from the positions of Ukrainian troops.
