Given the adoption of the Resolution of the russian Federation Council (the upper house of the Federal Assembly of russia) “On the use of the Armed Forces of the russian federation outside the territory of russia”, the russian side may begin the next phase of implementation of plans to provoke military aggression to finally justify the deployment of the russian armed forces in the TOT of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
These provocative measures will most likely be carried out by conducting real provocative shelling of Luhansk with Grad MLRS, which is in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, (probably at civilian infrastructure).
In fact, the only place suitable for conducting real provocative fire on the territory of Luhansk is the area between the settlements of Patronivka, Manotskyi and Elan (russia). This area is less than 40 km away from Luhansk in a straight line (the range of the Grad MLRS is up to 40 km), and the possible trajectory of artillery fire passes over the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Stanytsia Luhanska.
In other words, in the event of real provocative shelling from the territory of the russian federation at Luhansk, it will visually appear that the fire is coming from the positions of Ukrainian troops.
The maximum dissemination of this information will help to disrupt the enemy’s plans.
