1. Discrediting Ukraine-UK relations in the context of signing a 100-year partnership agreement on defense, energy and trade

In the coming weeks, the Center anticipates that Russia’s disinformation campaign to undermine the 100-year partnership agreement between Ukraine and the UK, signed on January 16, will escalate.

Russian propaganda is likely to spread claims that Ukraine is allegedly losing its independence and sovereignty, portraying it as becoming a “colony of the UK.” Allegedly, now the British will get Ukrainian subsoil and all mineral resources “for only three billion a year.” 

These narratives will rely on manipulative interpretations of the agreement, distortions of its provisions, and outright disinformation. In reality, the agreement contains no clauses requiring Ukraine to transfer its subsoil or development rights to the UK. Instead, it emphasizes the intention to attract British investment across various sectors of Ukraine’s economy, fostering mutual benefit.

Additionally, as part of the effort to discredit Ukraine-UK relations, Russia is expected to ramp up intimidation tactics, including escalating the war. A statement by Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebezny evidences this. He has already suggested that the agreement will lead to a “big bloody provocation by Britain in Ukraine, for which Russia will be blamed.” This follows previous attempts by Russian propagandists to discredit Ukraine’s treaty with Denmark, falsely claiming it obligates Ukraine to defend Denmark in the event of a military conflict – an entirely untrue claim.

2. Continuation of the campaign to discredit Ukraine over the termination of Russian gas transit to European countries.

The Center predicts the continuation and intensification of Russia’s disinformation campaign due to the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.

The main goal of this campaign is to shift the blame for the reduction in gas supplies to Eastern Europe onto Ukraine. Active dissemination of the following narratives is expected: “Europe is freezing because of Ukraine’s actions,” “European industry is losing its competitiveness without cheap Russian energy,” “Ukraine stopped transit at the behest of the United States so American corporations could make massive profits from liquefied natural gas exports,” “supporting Ukraine is destroying Europe’s economy,” and similar claims.

The target audience of the campaign is the population of Eastern European countries, primarily Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, and Austria, which are the largest purchasers of Russian gas transited through Ukraine. The Kremlin is attempting to exploit the potential economic consequences for these countries due to the suspension of gas transit to spread anti-Ukrainian sentiment and justify its invasion of Ukraine.

In addition, pro-Russian narratives related to this topic will be actively promoted in countries of the Global South. Russia will attempt to exploit anti-Western sentiment and the desire of some nations to obstruct economic cooperation between the EU and the United States.

At the same time, the information campaign about Ukraine’s alleged plans to destroy the Russian South Stream and Turkish Stream gas pipelines will intensify.

3. Russian provocations at Zaporizhzhia NPP.

The Center predicts that, in connection with the planned rotation of the IAEA mission at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in February, Russia may escalate its provocative actions. These could include both military and informational provocations, such as new drone attacks near the plant and baseless accusations against Ukraine.

4. Disinformation campaigns about Donald Trump’s inauguration and support for Ukraine

With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Russian disinformation campaigns are expected to intensify. These campaigns may involve manipulations surrounding internal political processes in the United States and attempts to use Ukraine as a central tool in propaganda targeting the American audience.

The spread of disinformation is likely to intensify, including claims that U.S. assistance to Ukraine is an economic burden, undermines the American economy, and lowers living standards; that support for Ukraine distracts the U.S. government from addressing pressing domestic issues; and that “Ukraine is corrupt, with American aid being misused or stolen”.

A new wave of fakes, manipulations, and disinformation targeting Ukrainian audiences is also anticipated, such as claims that the new Trump administration plans to cut support for Ukraine or pressure it into surrender. At the same time, there may be allegations that the U.S. has been using Ukraine purely as a tool to pressure Russia, framing Ukraine as a dependent state rather than an independent actor on the international stage. Additionally, Russia may use memes to mock Trump’s inauguration.

5. Elections in Belarus and manipulations about the alleged threat from Ukraine and the West.

The Center predicts that as the presidential election in Belarus approaches on January 26, efforts to inflame the situation will intensify to bolster public support for Alexandr Lukashenko.

Authorities and law enforcement officials are expected to continue making manipulative claims about an alleged military threat from the West and Ukraine. Accusations of preparing “extremist actions” will likely be used to paint the opposition as dangerous, illegitimate, and under the control of foreign powers. This narrative could serve as justification for cracking down on opposition activists, independent journalists, and civil society groups.

These statements also serve to distract the public from domestic issues, such as economic challenges, corruption, and human rights abuses, by shifting the focus to external “threats.” Claims of a “military threat” from the West and Ukraine are part of a broader strategy to secure the Lukashenko regime’s hold on power during the election cycle and amid internal instability.

6. Strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran. 

The Center predicts that following the signing of a new strategic partnership agreement between Moscow and Tehran, just days before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Russia will frame the strengthened partnership with Iran as a defense of both nations’ sovereignty and a response to the West’s “aggressive policies.”

This narrative is likely to reinforce the image of victimhood that benefits both Moscow and Tehran. Iran, in particular, uses such narratives to legitimize its growing regional influence under the so-called “axis of resistance,” while Russia portrays its invasion of Ukraine as a necessary response to alleged threats to its national security.

The agreement may also serve to downplay conflicts between the two states in light of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Additionally, it could position Iran as an ally that tacitly supports Russia’s actions, even if it does not officially recognize Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories as part of Russia. Moscow may promote the signing of the agreement as a step toward creating a multipolar world, fitting within the broader narrative of resisting “Western hegemony.”

7. Syria and information campaigns about the new government in the country.

The Center predicts that Moscow will promote narratives highlighting the long-standing historical friendship between Syria and Russia, as well as the potential for strengthening cooperation between the two nations.

At the same time, Russian officials may continue to criticize Bashar al-Assad’s regime for its ineffective governance and failure to address the needs of the Syrian people. This approach aims to distance Moscow from its former ally while deflecting attention from its own involvement in war crimes committed in Syria.

These information efforts are part of Russia’s strategy to maintain control over several military bases in Syria, which are essential for supporting its operations in Africa and reducing the impact of Western sanctions on its economy.