The closer the start of the NATO summit, the more aggressive the rhetoric of senior kremlin officials. The most radical of the putin regime’s supporters, d. medvedev, has published another opus in which he predictably asserted that a nuclear conflict is “not only possible, but quite likely” if the West does not agree to negotiate a new world order with russia. It is becoming clear that the kremlin is very concerned about the likely outcome of the NATO summit in Vilnius, scheduled for July 11-12. After all, one of the main issues of the meeting will be the discussion of Ukraine’s political invitation to join the North Atlantic Alliance.

What should Ukraine expect from the summit?

Unfortunately, for a number of reasons, there is still no final agreement in the Alliance on Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic future.  

First, despite the fact that Ukraine has unconditional support from most governments and political elites in the United States and European allies, the opinion among experts and professionals whose advice these governments take is not so clear. Even in those countries whose leaders are fully on Ukraine’s side, scholars and opinion leaders often publicly support russia’s ideas on options for ending the war and call for caution in criticizing it. In a number of countries, such as France and Turkey, even among non-pro-pussian or anti-NATO audiences, there is a tendency to support dialogue with russia, the importance of understanding the russian position and a more cautious approach to NATO expansion. Although this position is not mainstream, it has a certain impact on public opinion and is taken into account by Western leaders when making decisions about Ukraine’s progress toward NATO membership.

Secondly, even in those countries whose political leaders have already reconsidered their attitude and become supporters of Ukraine’s integration into NATO, there is a fear that a Ukrainian-russian war with Ukraine’s accession to NATO will inevitably escalate into a war between russia and the Alliance and provoke the kremlin’s use of nuclear weapons. In political circles, there are some opinions that Ukraine’s membership in NATO will complicate any security guarantees in relations with russia. They favor a format of relations with russia that would provide security guarantees for Ukraine but avoid a nuclear conflict in Europe. Some politicians (in particular, in Slovakia) position themselves as “peacemakers” or pacifists, so they oppose the provision of weapons to Ukraine and try to stay away from the process of NATO enlargement.

Thirdly, Ukraine is becoming a hostage to anti-American sentiment in Europe, which leads to a negative perception of future NATO expansion by some politicians. Anti-Ukrainian and anti-NATO sentiments are actively promoted in Europe by putin’s “friends” among the extreme left and right parties controlled by russian special services. The kremlin’s “secret diplomacy” is currently aiming to maximize the conflict between the United States and European NATO members by accusing Washington of blocking the Alliance’s expansion.

How can skeptics of Ukraine’s integration into NATO be reassured?

Actually, the fears of the allies that Ukraine’s accession to the military alliance will “drag” NATO into a war are groundless. After all, there is no question of Ukraine’s immediate accession to NATO. A political invitation is only the first symbolic step of the accession process, which does not activate Article 5 of the NATO collective defense treaty. That is why it is so important that the U.S. Administration heeds President Zelenskyy’s call to immediately invite Ukraine to join NATO with actual accession after the victory over russia. This step will make Ukraine’s movement toward the Alliance irreversible and will make russian attempts to prevent it meaningless.

The argument that Ukraine cannot join NATO during a full-scale war is shattered by the experience of West Germany, which did not have full sovereignty and territorial integrity at the time of accession. Moreover, the application of Article 5 on collective defense is not automatic even if Ukraine joins the Alliance tomorrow. Furthermore, in the kremlin’s view, NATO and the “collective West” are already a party to the war in Ukraine.

Despite the resistance of Western skeptics, support for Ukraine’s future membership in NATO is slowly growing in each country. In addition, US Ambassador to NATO D. Smith and UK Foreign Secretary D. Cleverly assured that NATO member states are close to a consensus on Ukraine’s accession to NATO under a simplified procedure (as per the scenario of Finland and Sweden). Therefore, there is every reason to hope that the summit in Vilnius will end in success for our country and that the leaders of the Allies will take the first step by providing Ukraine with a political invitation to join the Alliance with a clear statement and vision of the timeline for practical implementation.