The situation on the Ukraine-Belarus border is, of course, in the center of attention of the Ukrainian authorities and the Western partners. On the one hand, currently Ukrainian intelligence does not observe active movements of russian troops in the border areas of belarus with Ukraine, which may indicate the absence of signs of preparations for an offensive from this direction. At a meeting with foreign and belarusian journalists on February 16 in minsk, lukashenko also stated that the belarusian army would join the russian army in the war only in the event of a direct attack on belarus. On the other hand, lukashenko also reminded that belarus is a military and economic ally of russia, the countries share a common military group.
But despite the fact that so far putin’s calls for direct participation in the kremlin adventure have not been effective (in 2022, the presidents of the two countries met more than 10 times), lukashenko’s ability to make decisions on his own remains a big question. Even his last statement to journalists looks ambiguous: “I am ready to fight together with the russians from the territory of belarus in only one case so far: if at least one soldier from there comes to the territory of belarus to kill my people.” That is, with Freud’s caveat “for now” lukashenko emphasizes that this is only his position for today.
What are the arguments that lukashenko’s words should not calm down either the military leadership or the residents of the settlements bordering belarus.
1. Although the belarusian army has not entered the war on the side of the russian federation yet, its territory remains a bridgehead for the russian attack on Kyiv. The 6,000 to 10,000 russian troops stationed in belarus have a clear command and control structure necessary for an attack on Ukraine. Russian MiG-31K fighter jets, equipped with Kinzhal missiles, regularly take off from belarusian airfields to attack Ukrainian territory.
2. According to Western experts, by the end of the year, the russians hope to create all the conditions for a new offensive from the territory of belarus. To this end, in September, moscow and minsk plan to conduct large-scale military exercises and complete the spring draft phase of 2023, and by autumn – to conduct one or more additional drafts into the reserve. In addition, the kremlin expects that by the end of the year the military industry will have time to provide most of the equipment, weapons and ammunition needed for the invasion from belarus.
3. The belarusian army itself numbers 75,000 soldiers in peacetime, but in the event of a threat of war, its number can be increased to half a million. Under the supervision of russian instructors, the so-called sudden combat capability checks, in the framework of which the belarusian military make throws to the border with Ukraine and practice fording rivers near the border with Poland.
4. The authorities “unexpectedly” restricted access to the border strip of three districts of the gomel region (loyev, brahin, and khoyniki), which border the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine. It was from the territory of these districts that in February 2022, the offensive of russian troops on Kyiv began.
5. The kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist goals in the war against Ukraine. A real entry of belarus into the war would force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to divert considerable forces and resources to this area and make the situation easier for the russians in other areas of the front.
There is no doubt that at the next meeting on February 17, putin will again try to persuade the illegitimate president of belarus to directly participate in the war against Ukraine. Putin’s calculation is based on the belief that the belarusian dictator is completely dependent on moscow, and the belarusian economy is supported only by cheap russian energy sources and free access to the russian market. However, the key to lukashenko’s political longevity for 28 years was the ability to endlessly negotiate, maneuver, promise and not keep his promises. And the harder the kremlin pressures, demanding the entry of belarusians into the war, the stronger lukashenko himself resists. In order to avoid war, lukashenko is currently advancing an argument aimed at understanding putin – the belarusian army cannot be diverted to Ukraine, because Poland and Lithuania are threatening to attack from the west. In addition to the “NATO” argument, a “Chinese” argument also appeared recently, they say, “comrades in Beijing strongly asked not to do this.”
Only time will tell whether a sly argument will be enough to delay belarus’ participation in the war.
❗️At the moment, despite the fact that belarus is preparing for the war, we can hope that the russian federation will not strike from its territory in the first half of the year.
Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) consider it unlikely that a new attack on Ukraine from belarus will occur in early 2023, but assume that an attack from this direction will take place at the end of the year.
