The topic of the mass offensive of the russian army remains at the top of the news of the russian and Ukrainian segments of the Internet. Reports began to appear in the Ukrainian and russian media that russia would allegedly resume a “large-scale offensive” and start a “big war.” In particular, the propagandist mass media spread the narrative that a large group of russian troops numbering 600-700 thousand is fully prepared for a “sudden” attack closer to the anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, that is, by February 24. According to the russian version, the strikes can be both in the east of Ukraine and in the south, with the landing of marines. Also, the western border of our country, in particular Volyn and Lviv, is allegedly at gunpoint. As proof of the undoubted success of the “operation”, the supposedly existing new “superweapon” that “will help russia fundamentally change the course of the war” is cited. Unfortunately, this information was actively disseminated in the Ukrainian mass media and became the subject of discussion among millions of Ukrainians.
Why is russia spreading the message of a “big offensive”?
Certain signs indicate that this is only a part of the kremlin’s massive information and psychological operation (PSYOP) to influence the minds of Ukrainian, russian and Western audiences.
The kremlin is resuming its usual narrative of countless super-trained and heavily armed conscripts, state-of-the-art russian military equipment, the latest generation of missiles that will “wipe out” the decision-making centers of the Ukrainian command, and that “putin is starting to fight for real,” so in the Ukrainian army has no chance.
However, the facts prove that it is not worth talking about the success of the announced offensives.
First, according to the estimates of military experts, the published numbers of the amount of the russian military formations of 600-700 thousand soldiers are not confirmed by any intelligence and objective satellite monitoring of Western partners.
Secondly, the very small probability of a russian offensive this month is due to the lack of adequate resources in the russian army to transport such a large number of people to belarus, taking into account the fact that there is currently intense fighting in the east.
Thirdly, experts assess the landing of a russian landing force in Odesa as unrealistic due to weather conditions (storms and low temperature) and reliable protection of the coast by anti-ship complexes “Neptune” and “Harpoon” with a range of 200 km.
Fourth, when talking about “super weapons”, the russians mean the destroyer “Admiral Gorshkov” with hypersonic missiles “Zirkon”. But the ship is now in the Mediterranean Sea, so the russian federation will not dare to launch missiles through the airspace of NATO member states.
❗️ The information “throw-in” about the “big offensive” of russia “in the near future” is another manifestation of the hybrid information war against Ukraine, which is aimed at achieving specific goals.
1. By focusing society’s attention on specific dates and exaggerating its own offensive capabilities, the russian PSYOP is trying to intimidate and discourage Ukrainian society and the military from winning.
2. With threatening statements, russia wants to convince the West that Ukraine will not be able to resist powerful russian offensives, and to force an end to further military support for Ukraine.
The aggressor country is certainly preparing for the maximum escalation of the war, and no scenario can be ruled out, because the intentions to destroy Ukraine as a historical phenomenon have not gone anywhere.
There is an accumulation of russian forces both in the north and in the south, where the enemy is trying to conduct offensive actions that hold back Ukrainian troops. Moreover, in fact, the creeping “great offensive” of the occupiers has been going on for almost a year since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The activity of the russians in Donbas can already be considered a large-scale attack, which is unfolding not concentratedly, but gradually. The exact date of the major offensive depends on a number of circumstances, including the combat capability of the russian army, the amount of international aid to Ukraine, weather conditions, etc.
By spreading disinformation about the offensive, russia is trying to disorient the Ukrainian Armed Forces and “scatter” their forces in the wrong directions, particularly on the border with belarus. Currently, against the background of point provocations and the rattling of weapons on the border, there is no concentration of human resources and equipment sufficient for a large-scale offensive in Belarus.
❗️ But the effect of such information operations is constantly weakening. Even among russian nationalists and putin’s few supporters in the West, after a year of demonstrating russian military incompetence, they are not ready to accept statements about russia’s imminent victory. The enemy does not have a quantitative advantage that would allow the russians to implement strategic breakthroughs in new directions. The last unsuccessful russian offensive on Vugledar in the Donetsk region only confirmed the loss of the initiative of the russian federation.
