Although the russian pro-government media were forbidden to spread any statements about mobilization, according to the forecasts of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, to participate in several russian offensive operations in the spring and summer in the East and South of Ukraine, russia may start its second wave in January. This time it will take place primarily in such large cities of the russian federation as moscow and st. petersburg, as well as in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It is expected that up to half a million mobilized russians will take part in offensives in Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions and defense in Kherson region and Crimea.
❓ Will the mobilization planned by the kremlin bring the expected strategic advantage in the war with Ukraine?
The previous so-called partial mobilization revealed such systemic problems in the army of the russian federation as chaos in the military committees, scandals regarding the placement and provision of the mobilized, the lack of real preparation before sending units to the front. The intentions of the new mobilization will only exacerbate these problems.
🔸 The approved system of training of military personnel of the russian federation includes a course of all-army intensive training with a «survival» course – for 4 weeks, training of specialists in military accounting specialties – for 3 months, and for high-tech specialties – up to 5 months. At the same time, the training system is capable of training no more than 130,000 conscripts at the same time and is simply not designed for such a large number of recruits. In fact, as putin publicly admitted, the initial training of the mobilized lasts from 5 to 10 days, after which they enter the combat units that directly participate in hostilities. Naturally, such an «express course» does not allow you to acquire even elementary skills of driving and surviving in battle.
☝️ Unlike the Armed Forces of the russian federation, the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in addition to Ukrainian training centers, undergo training in 14 NATO countries. In addition, the Ukrainian military is trained by instructors from Sweden and Finland, which are not yet part of NATO.
🔸 The reform of the ex-Minister of Defense of the russian federation serdyukov significantly reduced the number of the army and broke the system of training future officers, the shortage of which could not be overcome at the beginning of the SMO. As part of the reform, out of 65 higher military educational institutions, 3 educational and scientific centers, 11 academies and 3 military universities remained. In many ways, the dismissals took place due to the disbandment of military units intended to be replenished by conscripts in the event of mobilization. The new minister s.shoigu did not correct the mistake of his predecessor, as a result of which the army was reduced to about a million people before the start of the «SMO». Today, the Armed Forces of the russian federation experience a huge shortage of officers in the ranks of «captain» and «major» against the background of a surplus of new general positions. Even with the calculation of 1 officer for 5 soldiers, 80-100 thousand officers are needed, which simply do not exist.
🔸 Problems with uniforms, personal weapons and equipment of the mobilized clearly manifested themselves during the «partial» mobilization and have not gone anywhere now. The General Staff of the russian armed forces does not know where to get half a million bulletproof vests, ballistic helmets, sets of winter uniforms and berets of the appropriate sizes. The shortage of artillery shells of the main calibers of 122 and 152 mm and the wear and tear of the barrels of artillery and tank guns remained one of the main problems of the Armed Forces of the russian federation. After all, the resource of the barrels of russian tanks (from 210 shots with armor-piercing sub-caliber projectiles to 840 shots with high-explosive and cumulative shells) and rifled artillery guns (up to 2,000–3,000 shots depending on the caliber, type of projectile and range of the shot) is enough for 1 month of intense war, after what needs to be replaced. But in russia, cannon steel of the appropriate type is not produced, and the production of billets for parts of the barrel group was preserved only at two enterprises: JSC «Motovilikhinsky Zavody» (Perm) and FSUE PZ «Barikady» (Volgograd). A critical situation is also observed with tanks, the volume of production of which cannot cover losses from the conduct of hostilities. To compensate for military losses, up to 8,000 tanks of various models (from T-62 to T-80) are at the disposal of the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation for conservation, of which up to 90% are subject to mandatory modernization. However, the russian tank industry is currently able to annually produce a maximum of 250 new vehicles and modernize up to 600 old ones.
❗️ The future mobilization of reservists convincingly indicates that the authorities of the russian federation are ready for a protracted war and a new mobilization of soldiers, whom it will throw to the front. However, a new mobilization, for which the russian army is neither organizationally nor technically ready, will be a real disaster for the country. Attempts to restore the combat capability of the russian army by recruiting untrained «cannon fodder» as usual for the kremlin will not prevent the Ukrainian military from advancing and bringing the final defeat of the russian forces in Ukraine closer.
