The “Hungarian issue” has always remained problematic for independent Ukraine. After all, the geopolitical interests of such global players as Kyiv, moscow and Washington are intertwined in it.
The anti-Ukrainian rhetoric of Hungarian Prime Minister V. Orbán is well known. He has repeatedly stated that he does not consider Ukraine to be a sovereign state. After the beginning of the military aggression against Ukraine, the Hungarian leader did not recognize putin as a war criminal and claimed that Ukraine would allegedly not be able to win the war against russia, and the only solution in this situation could be an armistice on the terms of the kremlin. According to him, as soon as the USA and the European Union decide to no longer finance the work of the Ukrainian state, “the war will stop immediately.”
As we can see, all of Orbán’s statements are in line with the main messages of russian propaganda and putin’s statements.
Even the latest incident with the release of 11 Ukrainian soldiers from russian captivity, which could have given a start to the restart of interstate relations, turned out to be destructive. There is no doubt that this toxic story, like the previous unfriendly anti-Ukrainian steps, took place “under the russian flag.” It turned out that the transfer to Hungary of a group of Ukrainian prisoners of war originating from Transcarpathia took place without the participation of the Ukrainian side, but “on the ecclesiastical line” of the russian Orthodox Church. Hungary did not even notify Kyiv of its actions in relation to Ukrainian citizens, and all requests of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry were ignored. The soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were kept in isolation, prevented from meeting with the Ukrainian consul and relatives, effectively turning them into Hungarian prisoners. The defenders were subjected to psychological treatment, they were convinced that Ukraine had declared them traitors and that they could not be returned under any circumstances. Only after publicly accusing the Hungarian authorities of holding Ukrainians hostage, part of the prisoners managed to be returned to Ukraine.
Why is it russia?
Firstly, the artificially provoked Ukraine-Hungary confrontation took place on the eve of the NATO summit in July and the vote in the EU Council in December, where the terms of Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance and the EU will be considered. In both cases, the kremlin is counting on Hungary to block Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic intentions. The story of the return of Ukrainian prisoners to Ukraine is already being used by russian propaganda as an excuse to artificially provoke inter-ethnic tensions in Transcarpathia. By singling out Transcarpathian prisoners from the rest, Orbán is trying to fuel the myth of “Hungarian Transcarpathia” and Hungary’s claims to this region, which is one of the key narratives of russian propaganda. We remember how earlier Orbán came to a football match wearing a scarf with a map of “Great Hungary” with parts of the territory of Ukraine and Romania as part of it. And the anti-Ukrainian information campaign launched in moscow and Budapest to “protect the rights of Transcarpathian Hungarians” organically complements the hybrid actions of the russian federation in Ukraine.
Secondly, the liberation of Ukrainian prisoners under the slogan of “church mercy” became an excellent opportunity for a propaganda campaign to whiten the image of the russian Orthodox Church, which was the center of separatism in Ukraine, and then systematically fueled inter-confessional conflicts. Under the “cover” of officials of the russian Orthodox Church, known to the whole world as “FSS agents in cassocks”, another propaganda myth is being created about the russian peacemaker church, which allegedly rescues Ukrainian prisoners of war. Without a doubt, the possible “agreement” between Budapest and moscow on the transfer of a new group of prisoners will again be presented as a “merit of the russian Orthodox Church”.
❗️So, for now, Hungary is ready to play a role in anti-Ukrainian performances directed by the kremlin. Orbán seeks to quarrel Ukrainians with the Hungarians of Transcarpathia and to use their contradictions for the gradual absorption of the region.
However, it would be a mistake to identify the entire civil society of Hungary with the Orbán regime. Thus, a significant part of the Hungarian population defines Orbán’s pro-russian orientation as a dead-end direction of the country’s development. Moreover, the failures of the russians at the front and the internal political contradictions in the kremlin leadership forced Orbán himself to gradually reconsider the need for strict compliance with orders from the kremlin.
After all, on the one hand, Hungary’s disagreement with a number of political, military, and economic decisions of NATO and the European Union already calls into question the country’s future membership, and, accordingly, Orbán’s victory in the elections. On the other hand, recent events in russia do not guarantee the kremlin’s further support for Orbán’s power ambitions. It is not for nothing that in an interview with the German tabloid Bild on June 27, Orbán admitted that he initially assessed the PMC “wagner”‘s trip to moscow as “a clear sign of putin’s weakness.” And commenting on the widespread opinion in the West that Hungary is a “friend of russia”, Orbán unexpectedly emphasized: “To say that we are pro-russian or friends of the russians would mean contradicting our historical experience.”
