Rumors about the deterioration of the health of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus began to be heard since the beginning of May, when he began to appear in public much less often.
On May 9, during a parade in Moscow, Lukashenko appeared ill and hurried back to Minsk, missing a lunch with putin. Already in Minsk, for the first time in many years, Lukashenko did not make a traditional speech on Victory Day. On 13 May, Lukashenko visited the presidential clinic in Drozdy, and on May 14, he did not appear at the celebration of the Day of the State Flag, the State Coat of Arms and the State Anthem of Belarus. In russia, Lukashenko’s health issue was met with a lukewarm response – deputy chairman of the russian state duma committee on CIS Affairs k. zatulin stated that Lukashenko “simply fell ill.” The Belarusian opposition is pushing the version that Lukashenko has infectious-allergic myocarditis (a disease of the heart muscle caused by infections). The conspiratorial version of Lukashenko’s poisoning by the Russians because of his reluctance to give orders to Belarusian troops to invade Ukraine was also voiced. However, on May 15, the Belarusian state media showed footage with Lukashenko, who arrived at the central command post of the Belarusian Air Force with a bandaged hand, as after a dropper.
Amid rumours of the dictator’s declining health, the question becomes relevant in society – who will replace him in case of death?
❗According to the Constitution of Belarus, in case of incapacity or death of Lukashenko, the supreme power in the country will temporarily (until the elections) pass to the speaker of the upper house of the parliament of Belarus. Now this position is held by n. kochanova – former head of Lukashenko’s apparatus, who is considered loyal to him and is supposed to ensure the transfer of power to the next politician, who will be declared the winner of the election.
It is worth noting that the peculiarity of the management system of Belarus is being under the control of the Lukashenko of the entire management chain in the country. There is no doubt that his removal from power by death or serious illness would have certain political and economic consequences.
Firstly, the kremlin will try to impose its scenario of maintaining control over Belarus, ensuring the coming to power of its protégé, who is more loyal than Lukashenko. For putin, it is fundamental that the new man of the Kremlin at the head of Belarus does not hesitate to join the war against Ukraine. And it is possible that as a result of the presidential election, the country will be headed by the current Prime Minister of Belarus r. golovchenko, the creation of Lukashenko’s eldest son Viktor, the most important political figure for the Kremlin after his father.
In addition to the Kremlin, China will enter the struggle for control onto the Belarusian government, which has invested a lot in Belarus and will also try to bring to power a president who would be friends with Beijing and continue the rapprochement policy pursued by Lukashenko. It is not known whether Xi Jinping has someone to replace Lukashenka, but China will not lose Belarus “without a fight”.
Secondly, Lukashenko’s death activates various internal clans to fight for the status of his heir, which can cause crisis tendencies in Belarusian society. However, in today’s Belarusian ruling elite, there are currently no people who are ready to oppose the Kremlin in promoting its candidate to power. It is also possible that the story of Lukashenko’s deteriorating health is his political maneuver to identify and eliminate opponents in power. If Lukashenko finally recovers, he will analyze, with the help of law enforcement officers, – who and how from his entourage behaved during his illness and will make strict personnel conclusions. The appearance of the dictator in military uniform at the central command post of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces speaks of his determination to eliminate all obstacles to his power.
Thirdly, this is a chance for the Belarusian opposition to consolidate its efforts and take power into its own hands for the sake of preserving the sovereignty of Belarus. The leader of the united opposition of Belarus, S. Tykhanovska, has already called on the international community to prepare “for any scenario”, to “act in advance and quickly” in order to “return Belarus to the path of democracy and prevent russian interference.” Whether the Belarusian opposition will be able to seize power after Lukashenko is an open question, because after the 2020 crisis, most of it has been defeated and is in prison or abroad. In this situation, everything will depend on the reaction of the Belarusian population and the determination of the West to intervene in the situation.
No matter what happens next with the health of the Belarusian self-proclaimed president, the latest incidents are yet another reminder for Moscow, Beijing, Washington, the Belarusian elite and the opposition that it is now time to prepare for life in Belarus after the dictator. What it will be – depends on a number of factors, so it is still unclear.
