The recent raid by units of the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Freedom of Russia Legion” in the belgorod region of the russian federation on May 22 caught kremlin officials by surprise, causing a real shockwave of information for them. This is the third time that russian volunteers have “uninvitedly” entered russian territory. On March 2 and April 6, 2023, the “RVC” claimed responsibility for infiltrating the bryansk region. The local authorities declared a “counter-terrorism operation regime,” leading to the evacuation of many residents in the graivoron district. However, this did not prevent the russian patriots from leaving the russian federation with minimal losses. Ukrainian high-ranking officials and official representatives acknowledged that they were aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The “russian volunteer corps” (“RVC”) is a military unit formed in August 2022, consisting of ethnic russian emigrants residing in Ukraine and other European countries. The “Freedom of Russia Legion” (“FRL”) is a military unit formed in March 2022, composed of former servicemen from the russian armed forces and Belarusians who defected to Ukraine to protect it from russian aggression.
The main goal declared by the russian volunteers is to liberate territories in russia from putin’s regime and restore constitutional order there. What does the increased activity of russian volunteers on russian territory indicate? Firstly, it indicates the internal crisis within Russia that had been brewing even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the russian federation.
The unprecedented losses of military personnel and equipment in Ukraine, as well as the shelling of the kremlin and russian cities, gradually revealed the government’s inability not only to achieve victory in Ukraine but also to protect its own civilian population. The latest evidence of the degradation of the security system in the russian border regions with Ukraine was the unhindered crossing of the border by units of the RVC and FRL, comprising 2 tanks, an APC, and 9 other armored vehicles, resulting in the seizure of populated areas. Russian forces were only able to regain control of these areas after a day.
The community was particularly outraged by the information that over 1 billion rubles had been allocated for fortification measures in the belgorod region. Secondly, within Russia itself, the resistance movement against putin’s regime is gaining momentum. This is because, against the backdrop of dissatisfaction with the escalation of hostilities onto russian territory, an increasing number of russians associate the threat to their lives with putin’s aggressive policies in Ukraine. Under such circumstances, the further spread of anti-regime partisan movements and popular support for the actions of the “RVC” and “FRL” within russia becomes inevitable. In fact, the border villages near belgorod have created all the necessary conditions for the local population to support the armed struggle of russian volunteers against the dictator’s regime. Furthermore, despite the inaction of local authorities and the incompetence of the russian military command, the kremlin is afraid to distribute weapons for “self-defense” to the russian population in the border regions.
The only reason for such behavior is the kremlin’s lack of trust in its own population and the fear that armed militias in the border regions will align themselves with the insurgents from the “RVC” and “FRL”, triggering a chain reaction that could overthrow the putin regime. What does this mean for the kremlin? The high-profile incident in the belgorod region on May 22 has been very painful for the russian government. In order to somehow contain the rapid decline in public trust, putin is forced to react, as the population no longer believes in the government’s ability to protect them on their own territory.
Putin finds himself in a deadlock where any decision will only worsen the situation. If he doesn’t withdraw troops from Ukraine to defend these territories, he will demonstrate to his people that his authority has weakened to the point where he can’t even protect the population on the russian border. However, if he returns the troops to the border, it will weaken russia’s defensive positions on the southern front precisely at a time when Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Through their cross-border raids, russian volunteers have achieved a number of goals that are favorable for Ukraine. On one hand, they have managed to sow panic in the russian information space and to some extent demoralize the russian population. The powerlessness of law enforcement agencies and the government to act in unconventional situations has led to the strengthening of anti-war and anti-putin sentiments not only in the belgorod, kursk, and bryansk regions but also throughout the country.
On the other hand, the forced redeployment of troops from Ukrainian territory to secure the border will weaken the russian grouping on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Additionally, the events in belgorod bring to the forefront the issue of creating a safe and demilitarized zone to protect the population of border regions from russian shelling and terrorist attacks.
