On April 26, the long-awaited telephone conversation between the President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyy, and the President of China Xi Jinping took place, at first since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of russia. Zelenskyy called the dialogue with the Chinese leader long and meaningful but did not provide details of the conversation.
The publicized result of the negotiations was the appointment of the ambassador of Ukraine to China and the deployment of the special representative of the Chinese government for Eurasian affairs to Ukraine and other countries to conduct in-depth communication with all parties regarding the political settlement of the crisis.
What can be behind the dry lines of the official messages?
It is obvious that in its assessment of the current war, China is much closer to russia, and perceives Ukraine as an ally of the United States. And it is not surprising that Xi’s “peaceful” initiative is advancing in the kremlin’s direction of starting Ukraine-russia negotiations on the terms of territorial concessions. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the decision to make contact with Kyiv is the result of putin’s agreements with Xi to prevent the start of the active phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and to impose negotiations to freeze the existing deployment of forces at the front.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping used the previous trip to moscow as an excuse to strengthen his sphere of influence at the expense of russia in the context of the economic confrontation with the United States. And while putin hopes to gain a powerful ally in the fight against the collective West, which will help to win the war in Ukraine, China has agreed to the yuanization of trade relations and russia’s humiliating role as a commodity appendage and political tool of China in its confrontation with the United States. At the same time, the kremlin was denied official assistance in the military sphere.
So China is playing a big political card and wants to end the war in Ukraine according to its own plan. Therefore, there is every reason to predict that Beijing will continue to imitate the peacekeeping role without any concrete peace proposals, except for calls for a ceasefire on putin’s terms. Beijing reaffirmed its vision of an end to the war as early as February 2023, when it released a “conflict settlement plan” calling for a ceasefire and negotiations, but without the withdrawal of russian troops. And on April 21, seemingly contrary to China’s official position, the Chinese ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, expressed doubts about the status of Crimea occupied by russia and stated that the former soviet countries allegedly “do not have a valid status in international law.” Of course, this vision of the end of the war differs from Ukraine’s position. Interestingly, in response to the barrage of criticism, the Chinese Embassy in France removed the transcript of the interview from its website and stated that the ambassador’s words were his “personal views that should not be over-interpreted.”
What should Ukraine do?
Firstly, there are still some hopes that China will not remain a formal peacemaker after all, because the results of the negotiations and Xi’s discussion of this topic with E. Macron give optimistic predictions that Beijing can take an effective part in the peacekeeping mission regarding Ukraine. There will probably be no direct peace talks soon. The timing of the start of the potential negotiation process will be determined by the success of the future counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the final exhaustion of the russian troops, which will create the necessary levers of influence for Ukraine from a position of strength. And then France and China can become the main mediators in determining the terms of ending the war.
Secondly, the pragmatic ambiguous policy of Xi Jinping proves that due to its confrontation with the USA, China will not take the side of Ukraine, but now it is not profitable for it to get involved in the conflict on the side of russia. Therefore, at least in the near term, Beijing’s formally peace-making position will continue to be preserved.
In this regard, Ukrainian diplomacy should establish a mutually beneficial dialogue with China, carefully explain our position and our interests, but in no case treat Beijing as an enemy. Moreover, in a conversation with the President of Ukraine, the leader of the People’s Republic of China rejected the scandalous statements of the Chinese ambassador to France, and confirmed his respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and his willingness to promote mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.
Therefore, it is worth accepting the special envoy Xi at the highest level and proving to him Kyiv’s vision of a just peace following the norms of international law, the UN Charter, and universal human values. The leaders of key Western countries should join the talks with Lu Shaye. After all, the EU welcomed the telephone conversation between Zelenskyy and Xi Jinping, expecting that China would use its influence on russia to end the war.
❗️ Of course, the very fact of the leaders’ conversation means that China has taken a certain step from the declaration of participation in the Ukrainian peacekeeping mission to the implementation of the plans. However, these intentions should not be overestimated and immediate positive results should not be expected.
