Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to moscow was closely observed by the whole world. For the head of the People’s Republic of China, this is the first state visit to the russian federation in four years, for putin – the first meeting with a world leader after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest.
It is obvious that one of the main topics of discussion was the participation of China in the role of “peacemaker” and mediator in the settlement of the war in Ukraine, which has become noticeably more active in recent months. On the anniversary of the invasion, Beijing released its own vision of the “peace plan” – a 12-point document calling for a ceasefire and negotiations, but not for the withdrawal of russian troops from Ukraine. The document received a negative assessment from the presidents of the USA and Ukraine. They did not support the idea of achieving peace in Ukraine, which would not include the observance of the principle of territorial integrity and the withdrawal of the russian forces. This time, the Chinese leader only confirmed that his country plays a “constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Ukrainian issue”, but without details.
A preliminary analysis of the restrained “diplomatic” statements of both leaders and the first reaction of the world allow us to draw the following conclusions.
russia
In the kremlin, the fact of the meeting of the leaders of the russian federation and the People’s Republic of China is positioned as a personal victory for putin against the background of failures on the front and the decision of the International Criminal Court on the warrant for his arrest.
putin sees the results of the meeting with Xi Jinping as a significant step in the creation of an anti-Western “multipolar world” devoid of US dominance, shared with China, India, Iran, and some Latin American and African countries. He believes the visit sends a message to Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East that China is a more viable source of support than the United States.
moscow will use all media resources to present the Chinese leader’s trip as proof that it has a powerful ally ready to support russia and its president at a time when the kremlin is under intense international pressure. China’s “Peace Plan” for settling the war in Ukraine will be positioned as the only way to peace with an emphasis on the need for a ceasefire without the withdrawal of russian troops.
putin will also use cooperation with the PRC to compensate for economic losses from sanctions. In addition, in order to overcome the military crisis in Ukraine, the leader of the kremlin hopes to intensify military-technical cooperation with the PRC, in particular in terms of the supply of weapons, artillery shells and missiles, electronics, drones.
China
With the cunning characteristic of Chinese politics, Xi Jinping will try to use russia’s international isolation for his own political and economic interests.
According to the Chinese leader, the longer the war lasts, the more it absorbs US and NATO resources, thereby reducing the likelihood of a war with the Alliance over Taiwan, which the PRC claims as its territory. The Chinese leader is counting on putin’s diplomatic support in a possible war over Taiwan.
The depletion of the russian economy by sanctions also gives priority to the conclusion of agreements beneficial to the People’s Republic of China. Currently, putin’s “best friend” has reached an agreement on the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which provides for the sale of gas to China at a 70% discount. As the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the russian federation o.novak stated, due to the high costs of its construction and the low contract price, “Power of Siberia” will never pay off. In such conditions, the construction of the gas pipeline turns into a purely political project to maintain loyalty to the putin regime.
In addition, the PRC gets access to russian military technologies for the production of missile attack warning systems, anti-aircraft missile systems and nuclear reactors designed to power submarines.
West
Xi Jinping’s visit demonstrated the actual division of world leaders in the struggle for global influence – China, russia and Iran against the USA, Great Britain and other NATO countries.
Ukraine and its Western allies do not support China’s “peace plan” for a cease-fire, because it did not reveal russia’s clear intention to abandon its maximalist goals in Ukraine, but only allows to buy time and prepare for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The USA and NATO will use all political, economic and military levers of influence to prevent the supply from China to the russian federation of components for weapons and civilian technologies that can be used for military purposes, including “grey” deliveries through belarus.
❗️ Therefore, in the near future, we should expect an increase in Chinese support for russia, which will also be used to wage an aggressive war against Ukraine. However, Chinese foreign policy pursues purely its own interests, so the amount of such support will depend on a number of economic, political and other global factors. In particular, China’s decision to supply russia with lethal weapons will depend on the course of the war in the coming months and the level of tension in relations with the US on the “Taiwan” issue.
