In russia, covert mobilization under the guise of conscription is gaining momentum. In addition, in contrast to the first part of the partial mobilization, in order to ensure the necessary indicators, even moscow and st. petersburg joined the general conscription, in addition to the depressed regions of the russian federation.
❗️On March 30, putin signed a decree on holding a six-month spring conscription for military service in the period from April 1 to July 15, during which 147,000 russians aged 18 to 27 will be conscripted. russia conducts two draft cycles per year, during the spring draft usually 134,000 russians are drafted. At the same time, according to British intelligence, the russian authorities are preparing to launch a major campaign to recruit an additional 400,000 soldiers.
And in order for russians to have no chance to avoid conscription, the state duma on April 11 adopted a number of laws on the creation of a single register of conscripts and the introduction of electronic summonses.
The approved package of draft laws is as strict as possible and actually introduces the presumption of guilt. It equates electronic subpoenas with paper ones and closes travel abroad to citizens who enter the register. The implemented electronic summons will be considered delivered from the moment of placement in the personal account on the “State Services” portal (the only platform of state and municipal services of the russian federation). That is, a man may not know that he has been issued a summons, but 7 days after its formation, he automatically becomes a criminal. The new rules will affect both conscripts and all conscripts, and those who ignore them face a number of punishments. Among the restrictions: a ban on registration of an individual entrepreneur, on state registration of vehicles, driving, refusal to enter into a credit agreement and a loan agreement.
Usual evasion schemes for such a mechanism are impossible, just as it is impossible and legal to change military service to an alternative one, that is, russians were put in a hopeless situation, which has not been seen since the time of the soviet union.
It is characteristic that the authorities continue to insist that the innovations are not related to mobilization, but only improve the procedure for serving summonses and military registration, and mobilization is not currently planned in the country.
What can the new conscription lead to and will it strengthen the military potential of the soviet union of the russian federation?
Firstly, in the short term, the new conscripts will not increase russia’s combat power, as they must undergo several months of training and service before participating in hostilities in Ukraine. Also, the increase in the number of conscripts reduces the quality of training of reservists and “volunteers” of previous mobilization campaigns. After all, directing the limited educational potential to the training of conscripts who will not fight in 2023 deprives the kremlin of the opportunity to qualitatively train reservists and volunteers who will fight. Instead, the increase in the number of trained fighters on the Ukrainian front due to the signing of military contracts by conscripts who will finish their one-year service in the spring of 2023 looks doubtful. Currently, the kremlin is trying to solve the problem by using the educational potential of Belarus. To do this, in mid-March, russian military personnel from the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground were redeployed back to russia to make room for new “batches” of recruits. However, no more than 9,000-10,000 conscripts can train in Belarus at the same time, which is not enough to solve the problem.
Secondly, putin is unlikely to dare to use the recently drafted troops in hostilities in Ukraine. In addition, the chairman of the defense committee of the state duma of the russian federation a.kartapolov emphasized that during the spring conscription cycle of 2023 conscripts will not be sent to Ukraine. Against the background of social tension and mass protests over the sending to the front of recruits of the winter-spring draft of 2022, it is doubtful that putin will risk repeating the mistake due to fears for the stability of his regime.
Thirdly, the application of innovations is predicted to lead to a sharp surge of discontent and provoke a new wave of emigration and other ways of boycotting the draft. “Levada” polls show an increase in the “demand for peace” in russian society. If in the first months an equal number of citizens spoke in favor of “war until victory” and “peace negotiations” (approximately 44%), then after the first wave of mobilization – already 60% were for peace, and only a third – for the continuation of the war. In the russian segment of the Steam gaming platform, the computer game “Simulator of escape from the Military Commissariat” is even gaining viral distribution, the character of which is a young russian who does everything to avoid the draft.
❗️Therefore, conducting covert mobilization under the guise of “putin’s draft” and using the tools of digital authoritarianism will not help the kremlin achieve its military goals in Ukraine and consolidate power within russia.
