Around 4:00 a.m. on July 17, russian mass media reported that due to an “emergency event” all traffic on the Crimean Bridge was stopped. Publics write about explosions and serious damage to at least one span of the bridge in the area of the 145th pier and the death of two people. Currently, the occupiers have announced the restoration of rail traffic, but road traffic remains paralyzed.
Various scenarios of what happened to the bridge are being discussed in the infospace.
According to the version actively promoted by russian propaganda, it was a sabotage operation by the Ukrainian military special services. The so-called national anti-terrorist committee of the russian federation stated that the attack on the Crimean Bridge was carried out by two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles. The investigative committee of russia opened a criminal case under the article “Terrorist Act”. Official representatives of the Ukrainian special services do not officially comment on the information about the new bombing of the Crimean bridge. However, the spokesman of the SSU veiledly promised to reveal all the details regarding the organization of “explosion” on the Crimean Bridge after the victory.
According to another version, the incident in Crimea may be an artificial provocation by the kremlin to justify the termination of the Black Sea grain initiative. According to the narratives that are advancing in the russian information space, the corridor through which the grain trucks go was previously used by Ukraine for previous attacks by naval drones on the base of the Black Sea Fleet, as well as for transporting explosives, which were later used during the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. In addition, the termination of the grain agreement significantly reduces the replenishment of the Ukrainian budget (according to experts, as a result of the suspension of the grain agreement, Ukraine may lose up to $800 million per month or up to $10 billion per year).
According to the version of the spokesman of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army “South” S. Bratchuk, the Crimean bridge could have been hit by “Shakhed”, which the russians launched on the territory of Ukraine. This version is supported by the fact that the pillars collapsed precisely from the side of the city of prymorsk-akhtarsk in the krasnodar region, from where Iranian drones are constantly launched towards Ukraine. Therefore, the missile damage to the bridge could be the result of an error by the UAV operator or its technical malfunction. It is not for nothing that the local and central russian authorities keep the circumstances of the “emergency event” as secret as possible.
Also, the incident could become a deliberate action by the kremlin as a reason to intensify shelling of civilian objects in large cities of Ukraine to regain positions lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. In the russian-speaking segment, with the help of “bots”, real hysteria is being dispersed, where it seems that the russians are accusing Ukraine of a terrorist attack and demanding a “decisive response” from the authorities. d.medvedev, in his usual style, actually called for the assassination of the top military and political leadership of Ukraine and their relatives. And the spokesman of the russian dictator d.peskov said that the “answer” to the alleged attack on the Crimean bridge will be the achievement of all the goals of the so-called “special military operation”.
Whatever the causes of the incident on the Crimean Bridge, it is already possible to assess its consequences.
For russia, the second attack in a year on one of the symbols of the putin regime finally destroyed the faith of russians in the ability of the authorities to ensure their security and completely disrupted the holiday season on the peninsula. Moreover, the operational headquarters of the krasnodar region suggested that those going to Crimea use an “alternative route” through the occupied territories of Ukraine – through Mariupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk, that is, in fact through the war zone. In particular, tourists are offered to use the bridge in Chongar, which was also recently attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Such proposals caused a flurry of indignation in Telegram channels, russians are simply mocking the russian authorities and the ministry of transport of the russian federation, which proposed it.
d.peskov’s statement about russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement will bring great diplomatic costs to moscow and the deterioration of relations with the leaders of African, Latin American and Asian countries, who will lose the opportunity to receive grain at affordable prices.
For Ukraine, the damage to the bridge structures to a certain extent disrupted the logistical route of supplying russian military equipment both to the occupied peninsula and deep into mainland Ukraine. Disruption of traffic across the bridge forces russia to supply its troops to Crimea and southern Ukraine by land routes through southern Ukraine, which fall into the zone of damage of Ukrainian missiles. Undoubtedly, this situation creates potential advantages in the course of offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
❗️ Regardless of Ukraine’s involvement in the nighttime bombing of the Crimean bridge, it should be expected that russia will continue to attack Ukraine’s critical and civilian infrastructure with all its available weapons, including prohibited ones. russia’s ability to change the situation at the front due to the intensification of shelling depends on a number of circumstances – from the supply of modern weapons and aircraft to Ukraine, to the morale of the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
