As you know, China is actively promoting its own “peace plan” to end the war in Ukraine.
❗️The document “China’s position on the political settlement of the crisis in Ukraine” requires the parties to respect the sovereignty of all countries, stop hostilities, resume peace talks, resolve the humanitarian crisis, protect the civilian population and prisoners of war, guarantee the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce strategic risks, promote exports grains, ending unilateral sanctions, maintaining the stability of industrial and supply chains, promoting post-war reconstruction, abandoning the Cold War mentality. In addition, the document emphasizes the inadmissibility of using nuclear weapons.
As you can see, the plan contains both completely appropriate proposals and overly general and purely declarative ones.
The Ukrainian side noted that any peace plan should begin with the clause on the restoration of Ukraine within the borders of 1991 and the withdrawal of russian troops (M. Podolyak), while the priority for Ukraine remains the “Peace Formula” initiated by President V.Zelenskyy (D. Kuleba).
In the West, the plan was also viewed with skepticism or distrust, since Beijing was unable to condemn the russian invasion and puts the aggressor and his victim on the same level.
NATO Secretary General J.Stoltenberg emphasized that China’s so-called peace plan does not inspire much confidence in democratic states, and the US president frankly stated that “the plan is bad because it is too good for russia.”
Why does not the Chinese plan meet the interests of Ukraine?
Firstly, Beijing proposed this plan after agreement with the kremlin, but without any discussion with Kyiv. The promotion of any peace initiative against the background of Beijing’s positioning as an ally of Moscow is pre-biased in favor of russia.
Secondly, these proposals do not contain any responsibility of the parties and China’s guarantees for their implementation, which makes the plan purely declarative.
Thirdly, some parts of the Chinese proposal directly contradict the Ukrainian position. Yes, the first point of the “peace plan” about respect for sovereignty is not addressed to any specific party. And it should be aimed at russia, which can end this war by withdrawing its troops. In addition, there is no word “war” in the document at all, and there is no condemnation of russian aggression.
The clause on “preventing the mentality of the Cold War”, which calls for an end to the expansion of military blocs, fully corresponds to the russian vision of the situation. It directly contradicts Ukrainian interests, because it prohibits Ukraine from joining NATO. And it was Ukraine’s neutral non-aligned status that led to russian aggression.
The clauses on “ceasefire” and “resumption of negotiations” are also inappropriate for Ukraine. This approach is beneficial only to russia, as it allows it to strengthen itself in the occupied territories and restore its military potential for the next large-scale attack and expansion of the war zone.
Also, China’s proposal to end unilateral sanctions is only beneficial to russia and allows the kremlin to find additional budget funds to transfer the economy to military lines.
Why is it to China?
This is a diplomatic move by China, which seeks to position itself as a global peacemaker with an active role in world processes and cannot allow the US and Europe to become more influential. According to the Chinese leadership, even if its statements do not lead to anything, the very fact of publicizing “peaceful initiatives” has already achieved moral superiority over the United States. In addition, China uses sanctions pressure to purchase кussian energy carriers at a significant discount. However, cheap energy sources do not cover China’s problems with moving American and European production out of the country. Therefore, in Beijing’s strategic plans, maximum distancing from moscow remains, so as not to suffer reputational, political and economic costs due to the support of the kremlin regime.
Should we ignore China’s offers completely?
The fact that China’s interest in the war in Ukraine goes beyond the previous “neutrality” is already a significant event. After all, the position of nuclear powers, such as China, can directly or indirectly affect the terms and conditions of the end of the war. Therefore, despite the fact that the Chinese plan in its current form does not correspond to Ukrainian interests, an important task of Ukrainian diplomacy remains attempts to expand communication with Beijing and during personal talks between the leaders of both countries to bring to Xi Jinping the Ukrainian position on this issue.
In addition, some points of the Chinese proposal partially coincide with the points of the President of Ukraine (in particular, regarding facilitating the export of grain and preventing the use of nuclear weapons), which allows us to hope for an improvement in Beijing’s position on disputed points and a refusal to transfer Chinese weapons to russia.
