Putin’s decision to suspend russia’s participation in the SORT agreement with the US became one of the most resonant geopolitical events of the past week.
Why did putin abandon the main international document that controlled the nuclear arms “race” and did the russian federation get a new trump card for blackmailing the civilized world?
The Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT) was signed in 2010 by the then presidents of russia and the United States, d.medvedev and B.Obama, for 10 years with the possibility of an extension for another 5 years. Under the terms of the agreement, each side can have no more than 1,550 ready-to-use nuclear warheads, no more than 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and strategic missile-carrying bombers.
After it entered into force (February 5, 2011), on January 21, 2021, putin signed the law on the extension of SORT until February 5, 2026. However, on February 21, 2023, during a message to the federal assembly, putin stated that russia would stop participating in the treaty and refuse to implement the SORT in terms of allowing NATO inspections of russian nuclear defense facilities.
❓What is the kremlin for?
1. Of course, this decision is due to the events in Ukraine and the position taken by the USA and NATO allies. This is a “political signal” from the kremlin and an attempt to split the state of the Western allies regarding the level of support for Ukraine.
2. The suspension of the operation of SORT removes from the russian federation restrictions on the deployment of intercontinental range nuclear weapons capable of reaching the United States in about 30 minutes, which gives, in putin’s opinion, significant leverage over the White House in matters of reducing financial support to Ukraine and improvement of sanctions policy.
We are talking about the launchers of the “Sarmat” (Satan II) “Avangard” missile systems, the continuation of serial production of hypersonic air-based complexes “Kynzhal” and the mass supply of hypersonic sea-based missiles “Zirkon”.
The head of the kremlin also announced the entry into the russian Navy of the nuclear submarine cruiser of the Borey-A project, after its launch “the share of strategic nuclear forces will reach 100%.”
❓ How the termination of SORT will affect global nuclear security?
American experts believe that russia’s withdrawal from the treaty will not have dramatic consequences in the short term, but will still lead to certain problems in the future.
On the one hand, according to the head of EU diplomacy Borrell, the suspension of the SORT will undermine the architecture of European security:
1. Putin’s publicized threat about the possibility of a complete withdrawal from the treaty (in February 2026), if implemented, will fundamentally change nuclear relations with the United States. This will set a precedent when, for the first time since 1972, a new agreement to limit the strategic nuclear arsenals of the US and russia will not be concluded.
2. The kremlin’s breach of nuclear security obligations violates the “predictability of strategic relations between russia and the United States”, increases uncertainty and the probability of errors in the assessment of the nuclear threat, and actually blocks the development of the nuclear disarmament process.
3. Cessation of mutual data exchange will allow russia to switch from single-warhead nuclear missiles to fissile warhead missiles without control, which will significantly reduce US nuclear security.
On the other hand, US Secretary of State E. Blinken, although he called russia’s decision “irresponsible”, but stated that due to the termination of moscow’s participation in SORT, Washington’s nuclear policy will remain unchanged, as it is not yet clear whether this decision by moscow will have practical significance .
Rejection of SORT also cancels the mutual mechanisms of tracking the increase of nuclear potential (the agreement provided for 18 annual inspections of weapons by experts of the russian federation and the USA) and makes this process uncontrollable. Although it will be more difficult for the US to verify data without a valid treaty, the US has extensive technical and other capabilities to monitor russian nuclear forces. In addition, the total number of strategic nuclear warheads in the NATO countries does not give the kremlin a chance to count on victory in a potential nuclear conflict.
The suspension of russian participation in SORT does not necessarily mean the intention to go beyond the limits established by the treaty in terms of the number of deployed nuclear carriers and warheads. This is more blackmail from russia than a real threat of nuclear escalation in the world. American analysts do not foresee an increase in the number of active russian nuclear warheads or the implementation of moscow’s rearmament plans due to the depletion of the russian economy by sanctions and the war in Ukraine. An attempt to maintain nuclear parity with China and the USA will turn into mass protests for the kremlin and the threat of a violent change of putin’s regime, and accordingly, prospects of returning to the requirements of the nuclear deterrence treaty.
❗️Russia’s withdrawal from the “SORT” fits into the kremlin’s policy of rattling nuclear weapons, but does not give putin a new trump card for blackmailing the civilized world.
