The activity of russian special information operations against Ukraine directly depends on the situation at the front. Each failure of “special military operation” is accompanied by a new PSYOP, which tries to minimize the negative consequences of another kremlin adventure as much as possible. Thus, when the Ukrainian defenders managed to seize the strategic initiative at the beginning of the counteroffensive, relatives, acquaintances, classmates and classmates from the russian federation began to contact the Ukrainian military en masse and promote the kremlin’s narratives about “special military operation”. In this way, the russian special services counted on a decrease in both patriotic sentiments among Ukrainians and their trust in the authorities.
Currently, russian political scientists see the international discrediting of the Ukrainian state and inciting internal political discord between allies as the main task.
According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the russian “social engineering agency” is actively preparing a package of provocative materials for target audiences in Ukraine, Germany, France, the USA and Israel. Topics relevant to the Western audience are offered for distribution. Of course, another set of fakes is adapted in the spirit of narratives of russian foreign economic policy, where factual data is manipulated and distorted to suit the purpose.
Thus, a cycle of provocative publications was prepared for the French citizen with a general appeal to the residents of the former French colonies in Africa – “France, get out, welcome russia”, as well as “Macron’s Pacific dances on the rake” – in order to discredit the visit of French President E. Macron to the southwestern part of the Pacific Ocean, designed to strengthen its Indo-Pacific strategy and confirm the role of France in the region. As you know, in the Pacific region, France has sovereignty over the territories of New Caledonia, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna, in the Indian Ocean – over Reunion Island. Informational sabotage of the russian federation is aimed at fanning separatist sentiments among the indigenous population of these territories and supporting the campaign for self-determination and separation from France, as well as efforts to keep Africa in its sphere of influence after the actual failure of the “russia-Africa” summit in st. petersburg.
For the German audience, the main slogan of the disinformation campaign should be the narrative “The crisis has already entered everyone’s home.” He emphasizes the direct connection between the decline of the German economy and the breakdown of economic relations with russia in the field of energy supplies and military, political and financial support of Ukraine.
Against the background of the most difficult political crisis in the last twenty years in Israel, the audience there will be attacked by informational attacks with the general message – “The cases against Netanyahu were fabricated according to the same patterns as against Trump.” The main message of the special information operation of the russians will be the expansion of misunderstandings between the Prime Minister of the country B. Netanyahu and the Biden administration regarding the adoption by the Knesset, on the proposal of Netanyahu, of a law that prohibits the Supreme Court of Israel from evaluating decisions made by the Prime Minister, the government or ministers. The USA and Europe perceived the innovation as a retreat from democracy, which will increase the differences between Jerusalem, Washington and European capitals and will have an extremely negative impact on the country’s internal stability and economy. Moreover, due to disagreement with the course chosen by the Israeli authorities, the Biden administration has refused to negotiate with Netanyahu for seven months. So the kremlin will try to use the political dispute between the leaders of Israel, the United States and Europe to weaken the anti-putin coalition and interfere in the presidential campaign in the United States.
For the Ukrainian information space, the enemy is preparing provocative materials on the topics of corruption, the aggravation of the political struggle in the higher echelons of the Ukrainian government, and the discrediting of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Therefore, russia plans to conduct an information campaign against Ukraine under the slogans: “Who takes bribes and who goes to the front”, “Political sparring: when will the battle begin?”, “Put out the lights – there will be no elections”, “Is it wartime or peacetime?” etc.
❗️The general goal of the new russian PSYOP is an attempt to sow doubts in the citizens of Germany, France, Israel and the USA about the ability of the West to oppose the anti-putin coalition and to force their own leadership to focus on internal problems and stop supporting Ukraine. The russian PSYOP seeks to convince Ukrainians of the futility of resistance and the expediency of concluding a peace agreement with the loss of Ukrainian territories occupied by russia. In this regard, the GUR of the Ministry of Defense urges to verify information received from unreliable sources and to be critical of materials aimed at discrediting Ukraine and inciting enmity among allies.
