Every Ukrainian is waiting for the end of the war and our victory. But when it will happen, probably no one dares to say. The course of events of the russia-Ukraine war in recent months allows us to conclude that the russian leadership is not abandoning plans to deconstruct the Ukrainian state. Any compromises with Ukraine and the collective West will mean not only the end of the putin era, but also the end of the existence of the russian federation as a single state. Therefore, for putin, the only chance to save himself is not to end the war.
In this regard, national and Western analysts are considering probable scenarios of what will happen to russia, Ukraine, Europe and the rest of the world.
In their opinion, the war can have one of the following endings:
1. Absolute military victory of Ukraine and its allies over russia. The scenario envisages a return to the borders of 1991, including Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In the russian federation, such a development will lead to the collapse of putin’s system and real prerequisites for the introduction of an international contingent into russia, holding a referendum and free elections regarding the future fate of the russian federation.
Probability: although certain Western experts consider an absolute victory for Ukraine a distant prospect, the effectiveness of this option will be decided on the battlefield. And the “turning point” will come in the second half of August, when Ukraine will be ready to launch a counteroffensive, according to the head of military intelligence, K. Budanov. The success of such a scenario depends on a number of factors, including the stability of the West to support Ukraine financially and militarily and the ability of Ukrainians to repel a massive attack by russia, which was announced for this spring.
2. Protracted multi-year confrontation without serious front line movements. Under such a scenario, the war will continue for years in the form of fighting on the contact lines, partisan actions in the occupied territories, bombing of Ukraine from the territory of russia or belarus. The transition to a positional war is definitely an undesirable scenario for Ukraine, because it does not solve the issue of its future and gives russia time to mobilize the economy and population on military lines.
Likelihood: Even though putin has set a course for a long and drawn-out war of attrition to weaken Ukraine’s resources, economy and military, Ukraine will never agree to such a scenario if it can prevent it militarily.
3. Military victory of the russian federation over Ukraine and its allies. The most negative scenario assumes that in the spring new russian units go on the offensive and gradually capture Kryvyi Rih, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kyiv, and force the Ukrainian authorities to agree to surrender. Most likely, immediately after the fall of Ukraine, russian troops will invade a number of neighboring countries, in particular, belarus will be finally absorbed by russia. The Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, Finland, Georgia and a number of Central Asian countries will also be in critical danger. Taking into account the nature of the relations of the modern russian federation with Iran, Syria, the DPRK and the PRC, the probability of creating an anti-Western coalition as a source of danger for the civilized world increases.
Probability: the complete seizure of Ukrainian territory and regime change in Kyiv are now almost unattainable against the background of Ukraine’s military successes, кussia’s operational and tactical mistakes, and the West’s extensive financial and military support. The maximum possible result is the retention of territories in four Ukrainian regions, which кussia now considers its own. Therefore, in the summer of 2023 (before the final deliveries of western weapons to Ukraine), the russians will definitely try to organize a large-scale offensive to “push” the current demarcation line in Donbas and other cities on the eastern front.
4. Involuntary loss of power by putin (palace mutiny, sudden death or revolution). The collapse of the regime could mean an immediate end to the war, as russia would not be able to wage it in conditions of internal chaos. For some time, there will be no strong central government in russia, which will allow the opposition to become more active in order to reset the foreign and domestic political course of the country, to fight for the independence of its republics and other subjects of the federation while preserving the controlled part of the resources and military infrastructure of the russian federation. Through the mediation of the UN and global players, an international platform will be created for the civilized disintegration of the russian federation and the adoption of relevant legal acts that guarantee the preservation of peace and partnership between the former subjects of the federation.
Probability: situational, depends on events at the front and the effectiveness of Western sanctions.
❗️The proposed options for the development of events are not exhaustive and finally substantiated, but the probability of a positive scenario increases if the strategic plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are implemented. The next key period of the war will come around the end of June – the beginning of July 2023, and until then active hostilities in the South and especially in the East of Ukraine will continue.
