The founder of PMC “Wagner” is prigozhin rapidly losing authority in the eyes of putin, who decided not to rely on his irregular forces anymore and instead trusted gerasimov, shoigu and ordinary russian military. In the previous months, in the implementation of the military campaign in Ukraine, putin relied on prigozhin and General surovikin. After all, the first promised putin to conquer as much territory as possible, and the second – to morally break the Ukrainians with massive missile strikes on the energy infrastructure.
None of them kept their word. The head of the PMC failed to prove to putin that his mercenaries are better than the russian army. In the battles for Soledar, the “Wagner” PMC was practically destroyed, out of 50,000 prisoners recruited by prigozhyn, only 10,000 are now fighting in Ukraine, the rest were killed, wounded, missing or captured. Also, the facts of the mass desertion of prisoners from “Wagner” and the testimony of their war crimes and gross violation of human rights in Ukraine had a negative impact on the image of the russian army and putin himself. The repeated crimes of the “Wagners” who, after completing the contract, return to russia, taking weapons with them, are gaining public resonance. Potential russian voters are also repulsed when, with putin’s tacit approval, a sledgehammer and a dug hole become a tool for restoring “justice,” and a “hair dryer” becomes the common language of communication.
Moreover, in an effort to demonstrate that his group is a better trained military formation than the regular russian army, prigozhin did not coordinate his sorties with the General Staff of the russian Armed Forces, which led to the loss of command of the troops and additional casualties.
Large-scale shelling of civilian objects at the initiative of surovikin also did not break the will of Ukrainians and the desire of allies to provide military and financial support to Ukraine.
Thus, the alliance of prigozhin and General surovikin will lose the confrontation with the shoigu power bloc and has currently lost the opportunity to replace shoigu and gerasimov with their proteges.
Due to the loss of trust, putin decided to show prigozhin’s group his place in the kremlin hierarchy. Surovikin lost his position as the commander of the russian forces in Ukraine, the marginalization of the “Wagner” group continues in full swing. In order to undermine prigozhin’s influence, putin refused public statements about the tactical successes of the “Wagner group” on the front in Ukraine, attributing them to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the russian federation. In the propaganda media, the statement of the spokesman of the President of the russian federation, peskov, about a possible assassination attempt on prigozhin by the Ukrainian special services is being “exploited”. This is a veiled signal from the kremlin, which is waiting for the founder of PMC “Wagner” if he does not stop counting on a political career and who will be “blamed” for his liquidation.
In turn, the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation got the opportunity to take revenge on prigozhin and send the “Wagnerians” as “cannon fodder” to the most difficult areas of the front, where they die en masse. In response to prigozhin’s attempts to discredit the military, the russian Ministry of Defense deliberately excludes the mention of the “Wagner” forces in its daily briefing.
The decline of prigozhin’s authority in the kremlin and the loss of personal indulgence from putin do not at all mean the loss of his political and military prospects. On the one hand, prigozhin does not lose hope of reaching a higher level of influence in the kremlin and makes it clear that he has his own and most importantly, an army of “prisoners” not controlled by the authorities, which he can turn against the kremlin system.
On the other hand, putin’s use of his fighters will definitely continue. “Putin’s Chef” will continue to coordinate the actions of its mercenaries in certain areas of the Ukrainian front and conduct local “special operations” to combat anti-putin sentiments and protect private economic interests in Africa, in particular Burkina Faso, against the background of the withdrawal of French military personnel from there. Also, due to the growing tension on the border with Kosovo, we should expect an increase in the activities of the “Wagner” PMC in Serbia (in December, the American special services noted the appearance of “Wagners” in Belgrade to curb the activities of representatives of the russian diaspora against putin’s regime.
Thus, prigozhin will remain for putin, first of all, a marginal who performs “dirty” work abroad for the kremlin.
Putin’s tossing between mercenaries and security forces once again indicates serious problems in the ranks of the russian occupation army and the crisis in his entourage. After all, the battle between the “Wagnerians” and the “military” is joined by a systemic confrontation between the FSB and the FSO, business and statesmen, and the financial and cultural sectors of the russian federation.
❗️ The confrontation between the “Wagner group” and the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation continues, the kremlin’s “Game of Thrones” is gaining momentum. The political ambitions of the participants of the “kremlin series” are finally destroying putin’s dreams of victory in Ukraine, bringing the defeat of his regime closer.
