The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine analyzed experts’ forecasts regarding possible scenarios of the Donbas events.
After the retreat of the occupant forces from the North of Ukraine, intelligence and most military experts reported on the russian army regrouping to the East of Ukraine. By all accounts, since early April, the russian federation was preparing to deliver a decisive defeat to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas. Contrary to russian objections about preparing an offensive in Eastern Ukraine, the active phase of the battle for Donbas began on April 18. President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reported the start of the battle based on the data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
For three weeks, foreign experts made various assumptions and forecasts about the development of the events in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, where shelling has continued since 2014. According to multiple sources, as of mid-April, the russian army has gathered from 60,000 to 70,000 troops in Donbas. The drafted troops, according to the plans announced by the russian general r. minenkov, are to conquer the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions and Southern Ukraine.
According to the forecast of the Institute for the Study of War analyst Mason Clark, published in The New York Times, the chances are slim that russia will achieve such enormous goals since there is very little time left to implement these plans. Moreover, Clark emphasizes that the russians, weakened after the unsuccessful offensive on Kyiv and the protracted battle for Mariupol, should take a break to replenish resources. As of now, the exhausted russian army is attempting to secure at least some success on the battlefield.
At the same time, the invaders are encroaching to capture the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Given the leadership’s ambitions, they must occupy these territories by May 9, when moscow holds the annual celebration of its victory in the Second World War. But, per the military analyst, russia will not be able to achieve this.
Financial Times analysts emphasize that actions with a deadline of May 9 may lead to mistakes by the russian army. Nevertheless, the media, without citing anyone, states a general opinion that it will be a challenge for Ukraine to resist the russians in Donbas as the russian army is well familiar with this area.
The WSJ military analysts model the events in Donbas as follows: if the kremlin destroys the Ukrainian army in Donbas, then russia can concentrate its forces for an offensive in the South. If the South is also conquered, putin may try to conclude a truce leaving a quarter or a third of Ukraine in russia’s hands. But this scenario is unacceptable, as when the Western sanctions weaken, russia will resume its attempts to capture Kyiv. The next step would be the russian federation challenging Europe and NATO. Analysts say that this disappointing for Ukraine scenario is possible only if the West stops supplying weapons to Ukraine. But US President Joe Biden has already publicly promised unceasing support for Ukraine until its victory.
CNN published the opinion of a foreign policy and defense expert, Daniel L. Davis, on the possible development of the events in Donbas. Davis emphasizes that, purely from the logistics standpoint, russian troops are in a more advantageous position in the East of Ukraine than in the Kyiv Oblast. According to Davis, if russia can approach the Ukrainian forces in Donbas from the flank and cut off their supplies, then the occupants will be able to surround the Ukrainian military. And the Ukraine defenders will only be able to hold for a short time without fuel, ammunition, food, and water. After all, the daily General Staff of Ukraine reports only confirm that the Armed Forces fully understand such a threat and therefore do everything possible to prevent the enemy from encircling them.
BBC military journalist Jonathan Beale makes more optimistic assumptions about the battle for Donbas. According to Beale, the Ukrainian army has several advantages over the russians. First, although the occupying army prevails in numbers, the Ukrainian military in the East is more experienced as they had the opportunity to study with Western instructors and master the latest weapons for eight years. Moreover, the Ukrainian army is more mobile and uses various modern combat tactics.
But we would like to note that all the forecasts mentioned by foreign experts and military journalists are assumptions. We remind you that only the military leadership of Ukraine has complete information and uses it to contend with aggression. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, consistently repeats that the key to the successful destruction of the enemy is a non-distribution of the military situation.
We believe in the Armed Forces! Everything will be Ukraine!
