russian propaganda messages on whether Ukrainians will really face famine in the winter of 2022-2023.
Nowadays, the russian media are actively spreading messages about the massive export of food from Ukraine and ironically talking about rising fuel prices, which, in their opinion, will inevitably lead to higher prices and food shortages.
In fact, Ukraine produces enough grain, but now there is a need for foreign exchange earnings from its exports to stabilize the country’s economy.
Last year, Ukraine had a record harvest, which is now stored in elevators. In 2021, we harvested 85.7 mln tons of grains and pulses, up 32% compared to 2020:
wheat – 32.07 million tons
corn – 41.87 million tons
barley – 9.42 million tons
rye – 593.9 thousand tons
oats – 471 thousand tons
millet – 204.2 thousand tons
sorghum – 173.9 thousand tons
buckwheat – 106.0 thousand tons
rice – 48.6 thousand tons
triticale – 32.3 thousand tons
other pulses – 681 thousand tons.
Among other crops, Ukraine harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower, 10.8 million tons of sugar beet, 3.5 million tons of soybeans, 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oil flax last year.
It is worth noting that Ukraine consumes up to 8 million tons of wheat and 7 million tons of corn annually. As for sunflower oil, the country has reserves that will last for 5 years, and sugar – for 1.5 years. At the same time, we should not forget that winter crops are expected to be harvested in the summer.
In 2022, farmers expect the harvest to be 65% of last year’s, as spring crops were planted in April in all regions except Luhansk. In western Ukraine, the area for planting “borscht set” vegetables was increased.
Currently, 8.6 million hectares have been sown with various crops, which is only 24% less than last year.
But the sowing season is only one part of the complex issue of food security. Due to the blocking of ports, the situation may become more complicated during the harvest in July and August, as there is a possibility of grain storage problems due to the lack of elevator capacity. The food security of the country will also be affected by the consequences of the fuel crisis.
The war in Ukraine is also a source of tension in the livestock feed markets. However, pork production in Ukraine remains stable, with an annual output of about 750 thousand tons.
In addition, Ukraine may face a shortage of vegetables in 2022. Due to the war, we are expected to lose 71% of the eggplant harvest, 68% of tomatoes, 58% of peppers, 46% of onions, 45% of cucumbers, 38% of carrots, 36% of potatoes, 35% of beets, and 32% of cabbage.
At the same time, due to russia’s war against Ukraine, for the first time in 30 years, global food prices rose by 12.6%. And this is a record! But the rise in prices will continue, as India, the world’s leading grain exporter, has announced that it will suspend exports due to the drought.
In 2020-2021, Ukraine was the fourth largest grain exporter in the world and accounted for 10% of global wheat exports. This provided food for about 400 million people. By blocking Ukrainian ports, the russians created the conditions for a global food crisis. Now, 5% of the world’s population may face food shortages, and the civilized world has already begun to look for mechanisms to save countries that are really at risk of starvation by exporting surplus Ukrainian grain.
In the recent history of humanity, russia has already acted as a catalyst for social events that have caused famine. Today, the russian occupiers are exporting grain from the temporarily occupied areas, where about 1.5 million tons of grain were concentrated. And this stock, among other things, was also intended for domestic consumption and sowing.
Thus, due to the fact that Ukraine produces enough grains and vegetables, there is no threat of famine. However, russia’s war against Ukraine, the fuel crisis and the lack of foreign exchange earnings from grain exports, as well as global economic processes caused by these factors, will lead to a general increase in food prices and a certain shortage.
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