On April 4, 2023, Finland officially became the 31st member of NATO. The solemn ceremony took place in Brussels, where the Finnish flag flew. It is symbolic that this day is also the 74th anniversary of the creation of the Alliance.
❗️For the first time in the last 19 years, the North Atlantic Alliance expanded in the eastern direction. The ratification of Finland’s accession took less than a year and, against the background of the war in Ukraine, became the fastest in the history of the military-political union. russia’s reaction to Finland joining NATO was predictable. putin’s spokesman, d.peskov, said that the kremlin perceives the expansion of the Alliance as an encroachment on the security and national interests of russia and “will take measures both tactically and strategically.”
NATO’s expansion to the East radically changes the security situation in Northern Europe and the Baltic Sea region and will certainly have consequences for NATO, russia and Ukraine.
How will this affect the Alliance and Finland?
First, Finland’s accession to NATO will further change the balance of power in favor of the Alliance. After all, Finland is joining NATO’s joint anti-missile and anti-aircraft defense and nuclear defense planning group, and will also add more than 257,000 of its military personnel, 1,500 artillery installations, and 64 American-made fifth-generation F-35 fighters to the Alliance.
In addition, the influence of the russian fleet in the Baltic Sea will change in favor of NATO. After Sweden joins the Alliance, the Baltic Sea will become NATO’s internal sea, and Estonia and Finland will be able to close the Gulf of Finland if necessary, cutting it off from the Kaliningrad exclave. Whenever russian ships have to move from their bases in the russian part of the Gulf of Finland, it will be necessary to ask for permission from Helsinki, Stockholm and Tallinn to move in their territorial waters.
For Finland, this means the end of the era of “Finlandization” (neutral status and special friendly relations with russia, and earlier with the USSR) and receiving the most reliable guarantee against a new russian attack, according to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
How will it affect russia?
russia has demonstrated to the few supporters of the kremlin in the world its inability to block further NATO expansion, which has become a discrediting factor. Moreover, the war unleashed by putin had the opposite effect, because it convinced Sweden and Finland to abandon neutrality and non-alignment. Thus, NATO continued its expansion in the northeast, the kremlin received an additional 1,340 km of the russia-Finland border with the Alliance, and in general, the land border of NATO countries with russia increased to 2,600 km after April 4. The strategic bases of russian intercontinental ballistic missiles on the border with Finland, st. petersburg, and the bases of the Northern and Baltic russian fleets became the affected zone. Due to the losses suffered in Ukraine, russia cannot respond to the expansion of NATO with a significant increase in conventional weapons on the border with Finland, which dealt a strategic and political blow to the russian president.
Secondly, Finland’s entry into the military alliance destroyed the messages of the russian propaganda machine regarding the “red lines” of the Alliance’s approach to russia’s borders. For the russian audience, this could become a catalyst for a sharp drop in the rating of trust in the authorities and the beginning of the destruction of the kremlin regime from within.
How will it affect Ukraine?
First, for Ukraine, the expansion of NATO at the expense of Finland does not create immediate consequences. However, in the long term, strengthening NATO at the expense of weakening russia will allow Ukraine to strengthen its position in Eastern Europe and in general in the post-Soviet space, which is gradually turning into a post-russian space.
Secondly, the “special Finnish way” raises Ukraine’s expectations for an accelerated procedure for joining the military-political union without a transition period in the form of the “Action Plan on NATO Membership”. It is clear that we will be able to use this precedent after the war and in case of victory over russia, because many countries of the Alliance are not ready to accept the risks of a nuclear conflict with russia.
Thirdly, the need to strengthen the military presence along the new border with NATO will lead to a forced weakening of the military potential of the russian federation on the Ukrainian front, which will facilitate counteroffensive measures by Ukraine.
❗️russia’s aggression against Ukraine gave the Euro-Atlantic integration in Eastern Europe a new powerful impulse and led to the reformation of the old security architecture in Europe and the final elimination of the “buffer zones” that separated russia and the West. Behind threats, the kremlin is trying to hide its huge geopolitical loss, which will end with Sweden joining NATO, and in the future, Ukraine.
