On the eve of the anniversary of the beginning of russian aggression, its “achievements” remain in the focus of attention of russian, Ukrainian and Western leaders.
West
In the months leading up to February 24, 2022, American and British intelligence agencies and diplomats have spoken publicly about the kremlin’s plans for an invasion. Given the dominance of the russian Navy in the Black Sea and the almost 175,000 military personnel concentrated in the regions along the Ukrainian border, it was expected that in a few days russian forces would capture Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government. The results of such predictions are well known — russia’s attempts to quickly seize Kyiv from the north failed, in the south russia achieved more success by capturing Kherson, and after exhausting long battles, Mariupol. By spring, russian units retreated from the northern regions and redeployed for new operations in Eastern Ukraine. The main conclusion of the anniversary of the war for the West was the understanding that the assessment of the capabilities of the russian army turned out to be radically exaggerated. Conversely, the pessimistic forecast regarding Ukraine was not confirmed, and the West was pleasantly surprised by how well the Ukrainians performed. External observers were especially struck by the lightning counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region in the northeast and the pressure on russian troops in the Kherson region in the south, when they retreated behind the Dnipro defense barrier. Successful events at the front led to a high level of support for Ukraine at both the political and military-technical levels, which was emphasized by the recent visit of the US president to Kyiv.
russia
As it turned out, European and American analysts were not the only ones who were wrong about the prospects of a large-scale russian invasion of Ukraine. The subsequent course of events confirmed that russian intelligence and analysts were also wrong. Thus, on the eve of the offensive, the Federal Security Service (the main internal security body of russia, which was responsible for analyzing the internal politics of Ukraine) gave putin extremely optimistic estimates regarding the “96 hours” in which the russians can capture Kyiv and achieve the surrender of the Zelenskyy government. When the predictions turned out to be wrong a month after the aggression began, putin’s reaction was so severe that the director of the department and his deputy came under investigation and were placed under arrest. On the anniversary of the full-scale invasion, February 24, the russians can make an attempt at revenge, using for a new strike on Ukraine the remnants of missiles and mobilized for a counteroffensive on the Bakhmut, Avdiiv, and Lyman directions of the front. Russia’s attempts to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine with the threat of massive shelling on the eve of the anniversary of the large-scale invasion will not yield results, because our air defense forces, thanks to the help of partners, are stronger than ever.
Ukraine
How much did Ukraine itself know about russia’s intentions? Exact information about this, of course, is not available and will be made public only after the victory. But Western experts believe that Ukrainian intelligence had quite reliable intelligence about the actual state and intentions of the russian army.
And when, on February 24, 2022, russia attacked Ukraine along the entire length of the common border, the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine proved to be effective from the point of view of military strategy. This made it possible at the beginning of April to force russian units to leave the territories of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and in September, as a result of a counteroffensive, to liberate almost the entire occupied part of Kharkiv region. It is the success of the strategic operation in Kyiv that can be considered the turning point in the russia-Ukraine war, which gave the Ukrainians confidence in further victories.
❗️As a result, the special operation “take Kyiv in three days” has been going on for a year and has turned into a long and tiring war for russia with negative prospects for its end, where the goals are vague, the plans are not announced, the victories are insignificant, and the losses of soldiers and equipment are significant . During the year, the kremlin can boast of seizing part of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions and several small settlements in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Kremlin propaganda tries not to mention how, due to the unprofessionalism and inept planning of putin’s generals, a significant part of the occupied territories was recaptured, and the greatest successes are currently considered to be advances of hundreds of meters or the occupation of a small village. “SMO” fully deserves to be included in the textbooks of the General Staff Academy as an example of how NOT to conduct military operations. Putin and his entourage are not fit to admit defeat due to the threat of popular uprisings and military mutiny. Therefore, attempts to correct the situation at the front or at least their imitations will continue. This is confirmed by the address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, in which the kremlin leader called to “fight to the end” to achieve the “goals of the SMO”.
