Coming to power of v.yanukovych and the criminal oligarchic capital led by him to practically monopoly power in 2010 created new opportunities for the kremlin to implement plans to occupy the peninsula. The relatively calm period of Ukraine-Russia relations changed after April 21, 2010, when in Kharkiv the presidents of both countries – medvedev and yanukovych – signed an agreement on the continuation of the basing of the russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol until 2042.
☝️ According to the number of agreements signed by Ukraine and the russian federation in 1994-1997, Ukraine leased a number of facilities to the russian federation in the city of Sevastopol, ARC and in the city of Genichesk (Kherson region). According to the agreements, the russian federation could keep up to 25,000 military personnel in Crimea and undertook not to deploy nuclear weapons. During all the years that the Black Sea Fleet was based on the territory of Ukraine, the russian federation systematically violated its obligations, did not allow representatives of the state authorities of Ukraine to the temporary bases of the Black Sea Fleet.
After the “Kharkiv Agreements”, the Black Sea Fleet turned from one of the key factors of russia’s anti-Ukrainian policy in Crimea into a leading instrument of future annexation. In order to strengthen its military groups, the russian federation begins to covertly bring modernized equipment to the territory of Crimea. The objects of the Black Sea Fleet leased in Ukraine are used as a base for intelligence-subversive and information-propaganda activities.
Under the influence of yanukovych’s “special” relations with the kremlin, since 2010, the political vector of Ukraine’s development has shifted towards russia, the military doctrine is being rewritten, and the Ukrainian military is being given a different signal – “russia is no longer the enemy of Ukraine.” Then the destruction of the Ukrainian army began – the military reform in the direction of moving towards the NATO model is gradually curtailed, funding is limited. Ukrainian intelligence records the training of paramilitary groups on the territory of Crimea. Thus, the 810th Marine Corps Brigade of the russian federation carries out special training of illegal armed formations at its training grounds.
Since 2012, 4 brigades of contractors equipped with new types of weapons and equipment have been formed in Crimea. At the same time, their intensive special training begins, which reaches its peak in January 2014.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on the threat from russia, but the then Minister of Defense of Ukraine p.lebedev does not even want to hear it and says that he will not report to yanukovych about “planning a war with our strategic partner and neighbor.”
Against the background of such “favorable” factors for russia, since November 2013, an unprecedented consolidation of pro-russian forces was observed in Crimea, “self-defense” units were organized, and the political and organizational infrastructure for the occupation of the peninsula was observed.
In September 2013, strategic exercises with the russian federation and belarus “West-2013” were held in belarus, where the following operational plan was worked out – the neighboring country turns to the russian federation with a request for help in restoring constitutional order in the country and overcoming terrorist groups that have seized the central government. In other words, fearing the fall of the yanukovych regime, the kremlin was already working out the scenario of war in the East of Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea.
By the way, after the exercises, 37,000 russian soldiers will remain near the borders of Ukraine and will be used during the occupation of the Crimean peninsula.
The rapid development of events on the Maidan changes the kremlin’s calculations on yanukovych, and russia begins to focus on the force option of seizing the peninsula, and on occasion, the south and east of Ukraine. In the second half of 2013, the number of overflights by reconnaissance aircraft of the russian federation over the borders with Ukraine increased several times, and intelligence work, as well as special and radio-electronic reconnaissance, significantly intensified on the territory of Crimea. In November 2013, instead of the usual 12, 45 tanks of aviation fuel were delivered to the russian base in Gvardiyskyy – this is the fuel for fighter jets that will fly to the peninsula in February 2014.
Under the guise of providing security for the Olympics, the 31st Separate Airborne Assault Brigade from Ulyanovsk and the 98th Airborne Division from Ivanovo are being transferred to the Krasnodar Territory. There, the russian military practices blocking sea and airspace and carrying out various reconnaissance operations using reconnaissance aircraft and long-range radar detection aircraft.
On March 11, 2014, it was announced that the “largest in 20 years” exercises of the russian airborne forces would be held with the landing of 3,500 paratroopers in the rear of the “notional enemy”. Units of russian mobile assault troops with experience of the wars in Chechnya and Georgia are being transferred to Crimea.
❗️In other words, preparations for annexation reached the finish line, the russian federation was put on full combat readiness for an invasion of the territory of Ukraine.
To be continued…
