russia officially forecasts zero economic growth by year-end
central bank of russia, in its updated macroeconomic forecast, has acknowledged that economic growth in russia may drop to zero by the end of 2025. This is perhaps the most pessimistic forecast from the regulator in recent years.
▫️ According to official data, russia’s GDP grew by only 1.4% in the first quarter (compared to 4.1% last year), 1.8% in the second quarter, and is expected to grow by a maximum of 1% — or even hit zero — in the fourth quarter.
central bank is still trying to avoid using the term “stagnation,” speaking instead about an “overheated” economy and a return to “balanced growth.” At the same time, the regulator does not hide the difficulties: in its commentary on the forecast, it notes that due to high lending rates, companies are finding it increasingly difficult to finance their operations and are being forced to spend their reserves.
It is becoming increasingly clear that russia’s economy is falling apart. The war and sanctions are having a long-term destructive effect that propaganda can no longer conceal. With such forecasts, the authorities are preparing russians for even worse scenarios and signaling that no improvement should be expected.
