The replacement of the commander of the so-called united group of russian forces in Ukraine, s.surovykin, with the Chief of the General Staff of the russian armed forces, v.gerasimov, and other changes in the russian army became the subject of discussion in both russian and Ukrainian, as well as Western military and political circles. After all, until recently, russian propaganda positioned surovikin in no other way than «General Armageddon», appointed as putin’s leader by the russian troops in Ukraine to make a breakthrough in the «special operation». In this position, surovikin became most «famous» for the assignment of massive missile strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and the adoption of a «difficult decision» regarding the handover of Kherson to Ukrainian troops.
❓ What is behind such a sharp change in the vertical of the combat command of the occupying forces in Ukraine?
🔸 In the ministry of defense of the russian federation, the rotation was determined by «increasing the level of leadership of the special operation», «expanding the scope of the tasks to be solved» and «the need to organize closer interaction between the types and branches of the military». Now gerasimov’s new status allows him to control all types and structures of the russian armed forces in Ukraine, from strategic aviation and the GRU to the fleet, without any approval.
🔸According to the second version, having actually concentrated all the resources and levers of management of russian troops in Ukraine in the hands of gerasimov, putin is counting on the success of a major offensive by russian troops.
However, there are serious doubts that this will benefit the «cause».
After all, it is no secret that there has been an almost undisguised conflict between gerasimov and surovikin since 2017 due to the fact that it was surovikin who was predicted for the post of Chief of the General Staff for 6 years. And today, surovikin, outraged by the fact that he held this position for only three months and was removed a week after being awarded the putin Order of St. George of the 3rd degree, is being demoted to gerasimov’s deputy. In the new conditions, the generals’ conflict will only intensify, which will not contribute to improving the situation on the Ukrainian front.
🔸 The change in leadership of the russian military group in Ukraine also indicates another phase of the struggle for influence on putin between the ultra-radical kadyrov-prigozhin group and the «old guard» of shoigu’s supporters. It was the founder of the PMC «Wagner» Prigozhin who called surovikin a «legendary personality» and the head of Chechnya r.kadyrov – a «real warrior» and lobbied for his appointment as the commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine in October 2022 against the background of the accusations of gerasimov and shoigu in responsibility for retreats from Kharkiv region and Kherson.
The carried out reshuffles testify to the hardware victory of the «plywood marshal» shoigu, who was able to convince putin to bet on «old, proven personnel» who will supposedly be able to realize his crazy dreams for Ukraine. Shoigu’s situational victory is evidenced by another reshuffling of the command of the russian troops in Ukraine, namely, the appointment of Colonel-General o.lapin, close to gerasimov, to the position of Chief of the Main Staff of the Ground Forces, whom prigozhin called unfit, and kadyrov demanded that he be pardoned as a private for retreating from Lyman in Donetsk region.
🔸 Surovikin’s strained relationship with lapin is unlikely to contribute to «increasing the level of leadership of the special operation». For prigozhin, gerasimov’s appointment means that despite all his efforts, he failed to prove the unique effectiveness of his PMC and win the kremlin’s under-the-carpet hardware games.
🔸The American Institute for the Study of War suggested that the reshuffle of the military is a combination of putin, aimed at removing himself from the blow in the event of a crushing defeat in Ukraine and presenting gerasimov to the domestic russian audience as «another figure responsible for the war». After all, such a concentration of forces and means within the framework of the «SMO» is unprecedented and imposes personal responsibility on gerasimov for the success of the «special operation».
🔸 The intelligence community of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain believes that the change in the leadership of the military campaign indicates the problems faced by the kremlin in achieving its goals in Ukraine. In the review published by British intelligence dated 11.01.23. it is argued that the appointment of the Chief of the General Staff as a theater commander is «an indicator of the increasing seriousness of the situation facing russia and a clear recognition that the campaign does not meet its strategic goals».
🔸British intelligence believes that this move «will be met with extreme displeasure by a large part of the russian ultra-nationalist and military blogging community, which accuses gerasimov of improperly conducting the war» and supports surovikin for «advocating a more realistic approach».
❗️Reshuffles in the command of russian troops will not change the development of the losing scenario of the war in Ukraine, but will only exacerbate the internal political conflict in putin’s entourage.
