The return of Ukrainian commanders from Turkey caused a mirror reaction – triumph in Ukraine and hysteria in the kremlin.

In Ukraine, the commanders of the “Azov” and the 36th separate brigade of marines were met by the President V. Zelenskyy and greeted by hundreds of people in the center of Lviv.

In the russian political field, the release of the “Azovs” caused an unambiguously negative interpretation. The spokesman of the russian dictator d.peskov accused Turkey of violating the agreements and said that this decision was allegedly related to the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front. The head of the ministry of foreign affairs of the russian federation s.lavrov, after negotiations with the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey H. Fidan, accused Turkey of a “destructive course to continue the supply of military equipment to the Kyiv regime” and threatened “negative consequences”. And the odious Ukrainian deputy-fugitive i.kiva, as a revenge against the Turks, called on the russians to hand over tickets for vacations to Turkey and thereby destroy the country’s economy.

Why did Erdogan agree to the return of the “Azovs”?

The conspiracy version claims that Erdogan suddenly released the “Azovs” a week before the end of the grain agreement, which was very important for him in a political sense, when he realized that it would not be extended by the kremlin. In order to avoid criticism from the Turkish and world community, Erdogan decides to offend russia first, so that the kremlin’s rejection of the grain agreement will look like revenge, and Erdogan himself – as a brave politician who was not afraid to challenge putin himself. Be that as it may, Erdogan showed not so much dissatisfaction with the russian position as personal disrespect for the head of the kremlin. Against the background of all moscow’s support for Erdogan’s presidential campaign, he shows that he will do without coordination with putin on this and other issues. This bold behavior of Erdogan proves the weakening of putin’s position and his influence on Turkey’s policy in the Ukraine-russia war and once again confirms that as an influential player the country is gradually disappearing from the international arena.

What does the return of the defenders of Mariupol mean for Ukraine and russia?

In russia, the release of the “Azovs” caused a flurry of criticism against the authorities and putin personally, and became an extremely irritating factor for the stratification of russian pro-war “hawks”. Thus, the russian ultra-nationalist community accuses the kremlin of entrusting Turkey with keeping the “Azovs” and criticizes the government’s agreement to include the defenders of Azovstal in prisoner exchanges. The majority of the russian audience is outraged by Erdogan’s treachery and calls on the authorities not to rely on Turkey, which is russia’s “historic enemy” and has “misled again.” Also, the event caused “great indignation” of the russian military on the front line and caused colossal damage to the moral and psychological state of russians at the front. The russian military on the “front” accuses putin of betraying their interests by transferring the “Azovs” to “vacation to Turkish resorts” instead of a “fair trial”. Thus, even among supporters of putin’s “struggle to victory” narratives, a clear split has emerged, undermining their motivation to continue to “denazify” Ukraine. In addition, the return of the Ukrainian commanders became another reason for the russians to rethink the “objective reasons” for the armed mutiny of the PMC “wagner”. According to an unofficial opinion poll, support for the goals of the prigozhin uprising to change the russian military command and the regime in general is increasing. Therefore, the release of the “Azovs” became one of the many factors that have divided russian society since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For Ukraine, the landmark decision of the Turkish leader regarding the release of the commanders of “Azov” is a significant victory for diplomacy and personally for the President of Ukraine. On the eve of the NATO summit, R. Erdogan’s statement that Ukraine “deserves to become a member of NATO” is very important, and Turkey will continue to support Kyiv and will do everything in its power to restore Ukraine as soon as possible after the end of the war.

Moreover, the soldiers freed from Turkey assured that they will definitely return to their combat duties, and this will be a serious strengthening of the Defense Forces during the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In addition, the Ukrainian authorities demonstrated to all Ukrainians that they do not abandon their soldiers in a difficult situation and will find ways to return all our servicemen from captivity.

❗️Therefore, it is obvious that in an effort to raise his prestige and influence in the region, R. Erdogan balances between NATO and the kremlin, but increasingly makes decisions that russia does not like in the context of the war with Ukraine. However, the decision to hand over the Ukrainian military should be considered carefully, since cooperation with the russian federation remains a priority for Erdogan. Therefore, Turkey does not introduce anti-russian sanctions and keeps all projects with the russian federation. In this regard, some experts assume that Erdogan will compensate for the return of the “Azovs” with another act in favor of the russian federation.