Belarus can become a russian bridgehead in the war against Ukraine
Prospects to use the territory of Belarus for attack on Ukraine for russia.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the leadership of the Republic of Belarus continues to provide military support to the russian federation for the war against Ukraine.
At night on June 25, russian military forces resumed launches of operational and tactical missile systems “Iskander” and for the first time used X-22 missiles and Tu-22MZ bombers for launch from the territory of Belarus.
According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, russian units are stationed in about 10 settlements of Belarus. Joint patrol of airspace borderland of the Belarusian Air Force and the Air Force of the russian federation is carried out. The preparation of aviation and air defense units Force is implemented.
Another transfer of Belarusian ammunition up to 20 wagons is sent to Belgorod region.
Belarus is actively building military infrastructure on the territory of the former “Zyabrovka” airbase in Gomel region (in the direction of Chernihiv city), which can later be used to locate another military base of the russian federation.
According to the forecasts of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the threat of further use of the territory and airspace of Belarus for missile attacks remains, as well as use of weaponry and military equipment from Belarus for strengthening russian groups in Donetsk or Kherson directions.
At the same time, according to military experts, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus lacks sufficient force and means for a large-scale offensive against Ukraine at present.
According to the Polish Defence24, there are at least 700 T-72B tanks at the storage bases of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus;
700 units of the cannon artillery;
300 RZSV (the Reagecatching System of Salvage Fire) and over 300 wheeled armoured vehicles.
This military equipment is mostly of outdated type, which has not been used for a long time and requires long-term re-activation and retraining of specialists.
russia needs at least 3-4 weeks to return to Belarus a powerful strike group, that will be able to resume the offensive on the northern border of Ukraine.
The Belarusian army has more than 60 thousand people now, including about 3,5-4 thousand soldiers in Brest and Gomel regions, that border Ukraine (7 battalions). This, according to military experts, is not enough for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Thus, although there is no sign of preparing a large-scale offensive against Ukraine from the Belarusian direction, the threat level of Belarusian involvement in the Ukrainian-russian war as a direct participant remains high.
Lukashenko is in full political and economic dependence under the kremlin, so his support for “special operation” is a key guarantee of his political survival.
Lukashenko publicly confirmed the possibility of using Belarusian troops in Ukraine. He also agreed to provide border areas of the country for deployment position of russian artillery, missile complexes and increase the number of tactical aviation of Air-space Forces of the russian federation for the shooting of Ukrainian territories.
According to the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the leadership of institutions and organizations of the Gomel region received a report on the deployment of russian troops in the region on June 26.
It is not excluded that the enemy’s subversive reconnaissance groups from Belarus are thrown out to make a sabotage for Ukrainian troops on the roads of logistical support.
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