It is most likely that the manipulative message “Europe will freeze in winter”, which кussian propaganda tested in the summer of this year, has reached a qualitatively new level. In fact, this is not surprising, because winter is approaching and кussian propagandists are increasingly playing on the “cold scare” that they spread in the societies of Western countries. However, is everything so clear?
“WEATHER FORECAST FROM MILLER”
Recently, TASS published the main theses of the speech of the head of the russian Gazprom, A. Miller, at the russian Energy Week forum, the first of which looks like this: “Gazprom” predicts an abnormally cold winter to pass the heating period.”
However, the scientific community is convinced that long-term weather forecasts are not very reliable. In particular, the statement of the scientific and practical conference “Hydrometeorological Forecasts and Hydrometeorological Safety” in 2004 stated:
“Operational models used in large meteorological centers have a predictability limit of 5-7 days <…> Detailed forecasts of meteorological quantities and weather phenomena or the sequence of meteorological systems for a month, for a season and beyond are unreliable. The chaotic character of movements in the atmosphere determines the main limit of predictability of deterministic forecasts of about 10 days.”
This is not to say that we cannot say anything about what the weather will be like in a few weeks, since all long-term forecasts are based on the use of probabilistic formulations.
So it is not clear where Gazprom, which does not have its own meteorological service, got the forecast of an extremely cold winter in Europe.
“FREEZING KRASNOYARSK”
Back in September, Gazprom released a video in which European cities turn into an icy desert after the gas pipeline is shut down. And all this against the background of a song about the onset of the “big winter”. In general, the circulated video caused a lot of discussion in the British, Italian, Portuguese, German, Turkish and other Western media.
Thus, the British newspaper “Evening Standard” connected the release of the video clip with very real actions of russia. The article states that “this happened three days after Gazprom announced the indefinite shutdown of the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline.”
The American edition of Bloomberg drew attention to the fact that “in the video, which was preceded by a tweet with a quote from the kremlin spokesman d.peskov, that the reason for the Nord Stream shutdown was sanctions, it is emphasized that renewable energy is reliable only in good weather.”
The video was also reacted to in russia itself. The fact is that the dead frozen city from the video is the russian krasnoyarsk, which has never been gassed. In particular, the russian mass media wrote that “the video uses footage of winter in Krasnoyarsk, a city of a million people, which has never been gasified. The main gas pipeline is promised to be built here in 2025-2027.”
That is, for a propaganda video about a freezing Europe, russian propaganda used footage of its own freezing city.
“FROM WORDS TO DEEDS: RUSSIAN TERRORISM”
Against the background of the explosions at the underwater sections of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline and the depressurization of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Poland, the President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyy made a statement that he considers russia capable of striking the Ukrainian gas transportation system, after which Europe will be required to repair and launch the Nord Stream-2″:
“They will strike at the GTS of Ukraine. In order not to blame them, they will commit a terrorist attack on their territory. They don’t care what to blow up. They will accuse us in order to hit our GTS. He [v.putin] will tell Europe that there is no possibility [to supply gas] and that Nord Stream-2 must be launched, otherwise Europe will be left without gas through Ukraine.”
The spokesman of the russian president, d.peskov, reacted almost immediately to such words of V. Zelenskyy, declaring that russia “is not in the habit of shooting itself in the foot.”
At the same time, starting from October 11, Ukraine suspended the export of electricity in order to stabilize its own energy system in connection with the mass shelling by russia of Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities. In this way, the russian federation increases the energy pressure on the European Union, since the export of electricity from Ukraine helped Europe to reduce the consumption of russian energy resources. “… russia is destroying our energy system, killing the very possibility of exporting electricity from Ukraine,” – believes the Minister of Energy of Ukraine H. Galushchenko.
One way or another, with the approach of the cold season, russian energy blackmail of Europe is gathering momentum. However, today it is almost entirely based on russian manipulation and outright intimidation.
But the question of whether russia will move from visual and verbal threats to the real disconnection of Europe from the supply of russian energy carriers remains open.
