The situation surrounding the threat of russian invasion of Moldova is gradually becoming more acute.

On December 19, the head of the Moldovan Information Security Service, O. Mustyatse, said that already in January-March 2023, russia may launch an offensive against Moldova with the aim of connecting with the Transnistrian region.

On December 22, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland confirmed that Moldova is on the “list of targets” of the kremlin.

On February 9, the President of Ukraine informed the President of Moldova M. Sandu about the interception by Ukrainian intelligence of the russian plan to destroy political stability in Moldova.

On February 13, Sandu confirmed the Ukrainian warning, noting that the russian federation wants to take control of the Chisinau airport in order to carry out a coup d’état in Moldova (Moldova and the russian federation do not have a common border, and they can transfer their troops only to the airport in Chisinau). The Prime Minister of Moldova confirmed that the government allows such a scenario and is preparing to counter it.

On February 21, putin rescinded his 2012 decree, which called for “continuing to actively seek ways to resolve the Transnistria issue based on respect for Moldova’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and neutral status.” As stated, the decree was signed “in order to ensure the national interests of the russian federation in connection with the profound changes taking place in international relations.”

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the kremlin brought its troops in occupied Transnistria to a state of full combat readiness, thus provoking tensions in the region.

☝️ “Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic” (“PMR” or Transnistria) is a self-proclaimed state in Eastern Europe with a population of 467,000 people, which the international community recognizes as part of Moldova. The armed forces of PMR are about 5,000 people, and the total mobilization potential is 25,000-30,000 people. Most residents of Transnistria have both russian and Moldovan citizenship.

Why is it russia?

1. Moldova is a traditional territory of kremlin interests. Having not achieved success in Ukraine, putin wants to use Transnistria as a springboard to overthrow the pro-Western government of M. Sandu. In addition, by increasing the military presence in the occupied territory of Moldova, the russians do not want to give Ukraine the opportunity to invade Transnistria and return it to the control of Moldova.

2. The activity of the occupiers in the Moldovan direction may be connected with plans for a “great offensive”. Russia expects to divert the attention and resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on this part of the front. In addition, Transnistria has the largest warehouse of ammunition in Europe, which the russians are counting on to use in a possible military confrontation.

3. The kremlin wants direct access to the airport in Chisinau to be able to transport troops and equipment to open a new front in Ukraine from the Transnistrian region.

Does russia have the power to go to war on the occupied part of Moldova?

On the one hand, in order to implement the scenario of invading Moldova and overthrowing the current government, the russian federation has a shock resource sufficient to cut Moldova into two parts and march on Chisinau. We are talking about the illegal armed formations of the PMR (up to 9,000 personnel) and the so-called peacekeepers. The operational group of russian troops in Transnistria (6.5 thousand soldiers) is constantly in a state of heightened combat readiness and, if necessary, can easily be brought into combat order in three days. Also, the kremlin may involve Chechen militants who are in Turkey under the “cover” of rescuers to the attempted coup d’état in Moldova. In addition, the kremlin counts on the support of 215,000 russian citizens living in Transnistria.

On the other hand, the kremlin’s plans for Moldova include exclusively a clash with the Moldovan army and law enforcement. But if the clashes are not limited only to the army of Moldova, the chances of successful implementation of this project do not look so obvious. After all, as V. Zelenskyy stated in an interview with Die Welt, Ukraine will help Moldova if russia uses Transnistria to open another front. In addition, the inhabitants of Transnistria have neither the desire nor the motivation to fight with Chisinau, especially in the conditions of the possible support of Moldova from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

❗️Putin wants to implement with Transnistria the “Donbas” scenario of the division of Moldova and the legalization of pro-russian enclaves on its territory. To this end, the russian special services are intensifying information measures in the PMR aimed at intimidating its residents with the “Ukrainian” threat and preparing “referendums” on the accession of Transnistria to the russian federation. The military escalation in unrecognized Transnistria will not stop either, but there will most likely not be a new russian attack in the near future.