The topic of the Ukrainian “dirty bomb” is, without a doubt, the main information source of Russian propaganda during the last few days. It is discussed on all international platforms to which russia has access, reproduced by all russian and pro-russian foreign media. In general, this whole theatrical production of the russian federation looks like another obsessive idea of the kremlin, which completes the logical series of terrorist blackmail: “Chernobyl NPP” – “Zaporizhzhya NPP” – “tactical nuclear weapons” – “Kakhovka HPP”.
NUCLEAR ARSENAL AS “A CHANGE COIN”
On December 5, 1994, the “Memorandum on Security Guarantees in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” or the Budapest Memorandum was concluded between Ukraine, Great Britain, the USA and the russian federation. In fact, it is an agreement on guarantees to Ukraine in connection with its acquisition of non-nuclear status.
After the start of the russian war against Ukraine, the opinion that the signing of the agreement was a mistake became increasingly common in Ukrainian society, as its provisions were actually ignored. But is everything so clear?
According to the first President of Ukraine L. Kravchuk, despite the fact that the Ukrainian nuclear arsenal was called the third most powerful in the world, this power was formal. In particular, in an interview with Deutsche Welle, Kravchuk said that “all missile control systems, headquarters were in russia, the suitcase with the trigger button was with President B. Yeltsin.” Although the launch vehicles were manufactured at the Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro, the nuclear warheads for them were manufactured in russia.
In addition, in the early 1990s, Ukraine simply lacked the money to establish its own production of warheads and their maintenance – then it cost about 65 billion dollars, and the treasury was empty.
But in addition to vague security promises, Ukraine also received a real economic benefit – fuel for nuclear power plants and partial write-off of gas debts, which was an important factor during the raging economic crisis of the 90s.
WHY IS UKRAINE STILL NON-NUCLEAR?
Since the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, the issue of restoring the nuclear status of Ukraine has been discussed repeatedly. People’s deputies even registered relevant draft laws. But in fact, there are many almost insurmountable obstacles on this path.
First of all, Ukraine does not enrich uranium, and the cost of building a plant for the processing of radioactive substances with the subsequent extraction of plutonium, according to various estimates of experts, starts at $15 billion.
Secondly, there are no universities in Ukraine that would train nuclear weapons specialists, so the personnel potential of participants in the theoretical “nuclear program” is very limited.
Ukraine does not have the financial resources to maintain its nuclear arsenal (according to the International Company to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). The minimum cost of maintaining nuclear weapons is about $600 million.
And the last. Ukraine does not have the political will to restore the nuclear program, as stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, D. Kuleba, speaking at the UN General Assembly: “Ukraine has made a historic contribution to ensuring global security. In 1994, we denuclearized, abandoning the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. We have no plans to restore nuclear weapons.”
At the same time, we should not forget that if Ukraine starts its own nuclear program, it will come under unprecedented external pressure, and it is not guaranteed that it will only be political.
An “INFORMATION BOMB” ABOUT THE “DIRTY BOMB”
Accusing Ukraine of wanting to use a “dirty bomb” became a new narrative of russian propaganda. At one point, almost the entire russian military and political leadership began to “shout” about it to the whole world: permanent representative of the russian federation to the UN v.nebenzia – to the head of the UN A. Guterres, russian minister of defense s.shoigu – to the colleagues in the USA, Great Britain, France, Turkey, China and India, the chief of general staff v.gerasimov – to the Chief of the Defense Staff of Great Britain T. Radakin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the USA M. Milley.
But in Ukraine they immediately started talking about the absurdity of such an accusation. In particular, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine O. Reznikov stated that “russia’s accusations that Ukraine is creating a “dirty bomb” that can lead to radiation pollution are absurd and designed to stop the supply of weapons and prepare excuses for russia’s own nuclear threats.”
Despite the massiveness of the russian information attack, the West did not believe in it either.
NATO Secretary General J. Stoltenberg warned russia against escalation on the pretext of Ukraine’s accusations of plans to use a “dirty bomb”: “Now russia is trying to falsely accuse Ukraine of preparing to use a radioactive “dirty bomb” on its own territory. NATO allies reject this apparently false accusation. russia often blames others for what it intends to do itself. We have already seen this trend before – from Syria to Ukraine. russia should not use false pretexts for further escalation. The world is watching this very carefully.”
Considering this reaction of civilized world, it becomes obvious that in the future it will be more and more difficult for russia to promote its own destructive informational and psychological operations, no matter who among the russian authorities is their source.
RUSSIAN (NOT) BLUFF, OR OPERATION “UNDER A FOREIGN FLAG”
Is there a possibility that russia is not bluffing? In fact, such a possibility cannot be 100% rejected. As the Ukrainian “Energoatom” has reported, “during the last week, the occupiers have been carrying out unauthorized construction works on the territory of the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel of the Zaporozhzhya NPP. Ukrainian staff and representatives of the IAEA, who have gathered at the ZNPP site, are not allowed by the invaders to the construction site.”
However, the probability that the kremlin will conduct an operation “under a foreign flag” to detonate a “dirty bomb” is minimal. This statement stems from the world reaction to the crazy accusations of the russian federation against Ukraine – the world simply did not believe russia.
The russian bluff is also confirmed by the statement of the deputy permanent representative of the russian federation at the UN, d.polyansky, who stated: “russia has provided evidence about the “dirty bomb” of Ukraine at the UN Security Council… in the leadership circles of Kyiv, due to the information of the russian federation about the “dirty bomb”, a commotion has begun, there are signals, that they are trying to “wind down” this program.”
